AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 10:00 PM
#60Away
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
29p
#85Home
Washington State
0-0 · AVR 45.3
27p
BOIS 56%44% WSU
Spread
BOIS -1.9
Total
56
Moneyline
BOIS-125WSU+125
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BOIS advantageevenWSU advantage →
BOIS throw
BOIS +11
BOIS run
BOIS +29
WSU throw
BOIS coverage #43BOIS pass rush #133
BOIS +30
WSU run
WSU backs #73BOIS linebackers #65
BOIS +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BOIS runs
Dylan Riley
vs
DJ Warner
RB · BOIS
MLB · WSU
79.1
69.6
BOIS +10
off the edge· hunting Madsen
Roger Carreon
vs
Paul Hutson III
LT · BOIS
EDGE · WSU
59.5
84.5
WSU +25
when WSU runs
Kirby Vorhees
vs
Jayden Virgin-Morgan
RB · WSU
MLB · BOIS
63.2
72.5
BOIS +9
when WSU throws
Tony Freeman
vs
Jaden Mickey
X · WSU
CB1 · BOIS
50.2
76.9
BOIS +27
when BOIS throws
Ben Ford
vs
Jack Bal
X · BOIS
CB1 · WSU
59.0
62.4
WSU +3
over the middle
Trey Leckner
vs
Taebron Bennie-Powell
TE · WSU
FS · BOIS
47.8
70.4
BOIS +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878
Washington State
LBDJ Warner
69.6153/878
RBKirby Vorhees
63.283/514
SJack Bal
62.4420/1427
CBJalil Tucker
54.9627/1427
CBJamarey Smith
53.0678/1427
WRTony Freeman
50.2307/777

also out — T. Leckner (TE), Hudson Cedarland (TE), J. Dugger (QB)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Boise State
opponent
Washington State
home+16.8
Oregon State#122
+7.3away
home+9.0
Utah State#92
-0.4away
home+3.1
San Diego State#64
-6.3away
home+2.8
Texas State#59
-6.6away
away+12.4
Colorado State#129
+13.0home
away+2.1
Fresno State#87
+2.6home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBOIS +1.995% interval: -25.9 to 2280% interval: -19.3 to 15.4-19+15BOIS wins 56%WSU wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WSU 28–28 BOISWSU 25–53 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWSU 28–49 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWSU 32–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWSU 35–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWSU 39–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWSU 42–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 46–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWSU 49–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWSU 53–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWSU 21–49 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 25–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWSU 28–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWSU 32–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWSU 35–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWSU 39–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 42–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWSU 46–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWSU 49–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWSU 18–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWSU 21–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWSU 25–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 28–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWSU 32–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWSU 35–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWSU 39–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 42–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWSU 46–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 14–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWSU 18–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWSU 21–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWSU 25–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWSU 28–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWSU 32–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWSU 35–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWSU 39–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWSU 42–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 11–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 14–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWSU 18–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 21–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWSU 25–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWSU 28–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWSU 32–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 35–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWSU 39–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 7–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 11–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWSU 14–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWSU 18–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWSU 21–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWSU 25–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 28–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWSU 32–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWSU 35–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWSU 4–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 7–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWSU 11–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWSU 14–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWSU 18–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWSU 21–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 25–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWSU 28–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 32–4 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalBOIS +28BOIS +14PKWSU +14WSU +28margin →