AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sun Nov 1 · 2:00 AM
#59Away
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
29p
#60Home
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
32p
TXST 42%58% BOIS
Spread
BOIS -2.8
Total
62
Moneyline
TXST+137BOIS-137
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TXST advantageevenBOIS advantage →
TXST throw
BOIS coverage #43BOIS pass rush #133
TXST +43
TXST run
TXST line #18TXST backs #97
TXST +30
BOIS throw
BOIS +13
BOIS run
BOIS +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TXST throws
Beau Sparks
vs
Jaden Mickey
X · TXST
CB1 · BOIS
80.3
76.9
TXST +3
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Jaylen Early
vs
David Latu
LT · TXST
EDGE · BOIS
91.1
63.8
TXST +27
off the edge· hunting Madsen
Roger Carreon
vs
DonTerry Russell
LT · BOIS
EDGE · TXST
59.5
83.6
TXST +24
when BOIS runs
Dylan Riley
vs
Terrence Cooks II
RB · BOIS
MLB · TXST
79.1
60.0
BOIS +19
over the middle
Blake Smith
vs
Taebron Bennie-Powell
TE · TXST
FS · BOIS
64.1
70.4
BOIS +6
when TXST runs
Jaylen Jenkins
vs
Jayden Virgin-Morgan
RB · TXST
MLB · BOIS
53.2
72.5
BOIS +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas State
opponent
Boise State
away+11.4
Oregon State#122
+16.8home
away-2.2
San Diego State#64
+3.1home
home+17.1
Colorado State#129
+12.4away
home+6.8
Fresno State#87
+2.1away
home+6.6
Washington State#85
+1.9away
home+8.7
Utah State#92
+9.0home

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBOIS +2.895% interval: -21.1 to 26.780% interval: -14.6 to 20.2-15+20TXST wins 42%BOIS wins 58%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BOIS 32–32 TXSTBOIS 28–56 TXST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBOIS 32–53 TXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 35–49 TXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBOIS 39–46 TXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 42–42 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 46–39 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 49–35 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 53–32 TXST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 56–28 TXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBOIS 25–53 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 28–49 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 32–46 TXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 35–42 TXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBOIS 39–39 TXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 42–35 TXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 46–32 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 49–28 TXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBOIS 53–25 TXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 21–49 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 25–46 TXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 28–42 TXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 32–39 TXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 35–35 TXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBOIS 39–32 TXST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBOIS 42–28 TXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 46–25 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 49–21 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 18–46 TXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 21–42 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBOIS 25–39 TXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 28–35 TXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBOIS 32–32 TXST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 35–28 TXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBOIS 39–25 TXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 42–21 TXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 46–18 TXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 14–42 TXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 18–39 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBOIS 21–35 TXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 25–32 TXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 28–28 TXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBOIS 32–25 TXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBOIS 35–21 TXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 39–18 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 42–14 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 11–39 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 14–35 TXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 18–32 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 21–28 TXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBOIS 25–25 TXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBOIS 28–21 TXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBOIS 32–18 TXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 35–14 TXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBOIS 39–11 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 7–35 TXST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBOIS 11–32 TXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 14–28 TXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBOIS 18–25 TXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBOIS 21–21 TXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBOIS 25–18 TXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 28–14 TXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 32–11 TXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBOIS 35–7 TXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalTXST +28TXST +14PKBOIS +14BOIS +28margin →