AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sun Sep 20 · 2:00 AM
Away
South Dakota
—
16p
#60Home
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
43p
SDAK 3%97% BOIS
Spread
BOIS -26.5
Total
59
Moneyline
SDAK—BOIS—
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878

Projected margin

80% between 10 and 43
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBOIS +26.595% interval: 3.5 to 49.580% interval: 9.8 to 43.2+10+43SDAK wins 3%BOIS wins 97%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BOIS 42–14 SDAKBOIS 39–39 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 42–35 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 46–32 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBOIS 49–28 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 53–25 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 56–21 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 60–18 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 63–14 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 67–11 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 35–35 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBOIS 39–32 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBOIS 42–28 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 46–25 SDAK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBOIS 49–21 SDAK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBOIS 53–18 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBOIS 56–14 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBOIS 60–11 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBOIS 63–7 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 32–32 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 35–28 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 39–25 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 42–21 SDAK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 46–18 SDAK neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesBOIS 49–14 SDAK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBOIS 53–11 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 56–7 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 60–4 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 28–28 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 32–25 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 35–21 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 39–18 SDAK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 42–14 SDAK neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesBOIS 46–11 SDAK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBOIS 49–7 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 53–4 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 56–0 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 25–25 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 28–21 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBOIS 32–18 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 35–14 SDAK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBOIS 39–11 SDAK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 42–7 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBOIS 46–4 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBOIS 49–0 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)BOIS 21–21 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBOIS 25–18 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 28–14 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBOIS 32–11 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 35–7 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBOIS 39–4 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 42–0 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)BOIS 18–18 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 21–14 SDAK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 25–11 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBOIS 28–7 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBOIS 32–4 SDAK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 35–0 SDAK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKBOIS +14BOIS +28BOIS +42BOIS +56margin →