AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 11:30 PM
#92Away
Utah State
0-0 · AVR 42.3
26p
#60Home
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
35p
USU 27%73% BOIS
Spread
BOIS -9.0
Total
61
Moneyline
USU+270BOIS-270
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USU advantageevenBOIS advantage →
USU throw
USU protection #88BOIS coverage #43
USU +9
USU run
BOIS linebackers #65
USU +13
BOIS throw
BOIS +9
BOIS run
BOIS +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BOIS runs
Dylan Riley
vs
John Miller
RB · BOIS
MLB · USU
79.1
66.6
BOIS +13
when USU runs
Javen Jacobs
vs
Jayden Virgin-Morgan
RB · USU
MLB · BOIS
71.1
72.5
dead even
when BOIS throws
Ben Ford
vs
Chika Ebunoha
X · BOIS
CB1 · USU
59.0
71.6
USU +13
when USU throws
Kahanu Davis
vs
Jaden Mickey
X · USU
CB1 · BOIS
53.2
76.9
BOIS +24
over the middle
Kache Kaio
vs
Taebron Bennie-Powell
TE · USU
FS · BOIS
51.4
70.4
BOIS +19
off the edge· hunting Madsen
Roger Carreon
vs
Tyree Morris
LT · BOIS
EDGE · USU
59.5
61.9
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah State
QBBryson Barnes
71.737/308
SChika Ebunoha
71.6199/1427
RBJaven Jacobs
71.147/514
LBJohn Miller
66.6192/878
SIke Larsen
66.6317/1427
LBBronson Olevao Jr.
65.1210/878
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Utah State
opponent
Boise State
away+5.2
Oregon State#122
+16.8home
away-8.7
Texas State#59
+2.8home
away-8.4
San Diego State#64
+3.1home
home+0.5
Fresno State#87
+2.1away
home+0.4
Washington State#85
+1.9away
home+10.9
Colorado State#129
+12.4away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBOIS +9.095% interval: -14.9 to 32.980% interval: -8.3 to 26.4-8+26USU wins 27%BOIS wins 73%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BOIS 35–28 USUBOIS 32–53 USU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBOIS 35–49 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 39–46 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBOIS 42–42 USU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 46–39 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 49–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBOIS 53–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 56–28 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBOIS 60–25 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 28–49 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 32–46 USU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 35–42 USU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 39–39 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 42–35 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 46–32 USU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 49–28 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBOIS 53–25 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBOIS 56–21 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBOIS 25–46 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 28–42 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBOIS 32–39 USU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 35–35 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 39–32 USU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBOIS 42–28 USU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBOIS 46–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 49–21 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBOIS 53–18 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 21–42 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 25–39 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 28–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBOIS 32–32 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBOIS 35–28 USU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 39–25 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBOIS 42–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 46–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 49–14 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 18–39 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 21–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 25–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBOIS 28–28 USU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBOIS 32–25 USU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 35–21 USU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBOIS 39–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBOIS 42–14 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 46–11 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 14–35 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 18–32 USU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 21–28 USU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 25–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 28–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBOIS 32–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBOIS 35–14 USU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBOIS 39–11 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBOIS 42–7 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 11–32 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 14–28 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 18–25 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBOIS 21–21 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBOIS 25–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBOIS 28–14 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 32–11 USU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 35–7 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 39–4 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalUSU +21USU +7BOIS +7BOIS +21BOIS +35margin →