AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#60Away
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
28p
#84Home
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
27p
BOIS 54%46% WMU
Spread
BOIS -1.1
Total
55
Moneyline
BOIS-116WMU+116
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BOIS advantageevenWMU advantage →
BOIS throw
WMU +17
BOIS run
WMU linebackers #114
BOIS +27
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
BOIS +9
WMU run
BOIS linebackers #65
WMU +39

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Madsen
Roger Carreon
vs
August Johanningsmeier
LT · BOIS
EDGE · WMU
59.5
81.6
WMU +22
when BOIS throws
Ben Ford
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · BOIS
CB1 · WMU
59.0
78.2
WMU +19
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
David Latu
LT · WMU
EDGE · BOIS
72.2
63.8
WMU +8
when BOIS runs
Dylan Riley
vs
Domanick Moon
RB · BOIS
MLB · WMU
79.1
56.5
BOIS +23
when WMU runs
Jalen Buckley
vs
Jayden Virgin-Morgan
RB · WMU
MLB · BOIS
62.8
72.5
BOIS +10
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
Jaden Mickey
X · WMU
CB1 · BOIS
47.0
76.9
BOIS +30

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBOIS +1.195% interval: -25 to 22.880% interval: -18.5 to 16.3-18+16BOIS wins 54%WMU wins 46%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WMU 28–28 BOISWMU 25–53 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 28–49 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWMU 32–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWMU 35–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWMU 39–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 42–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 46–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWMU 49–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWMU 53–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 21–49 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 25–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 28–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 32–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWMU 35–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWMU 39–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 42–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWMU 46–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWMU 49–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 18–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 21–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWMU 25–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 28–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWMU 32–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 35–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWMU 39–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 42–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 46–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 14–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 18–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWMU 21–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 25–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 28–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWMU 32–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWMU 35–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 39–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 42–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 11–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 14–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWMU 18–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWMU 21–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWMU 25–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWMU 28–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWMU 32–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWMU 35–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 39–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 7–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 11–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 14–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 18–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWMU 21–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWMU 25–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWMU 28–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWMU 32–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWMU 35–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 4–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 7–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWMU 11–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWMU 14–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 18–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 21–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 25–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWMU 28–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWMU 32–4 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalBOIS +28BOIS +14PKWMU +14WMU +28margin →