AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 11:00 PM
#60Away
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
35p
#129Home
Colorado State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
22p
BOIS 81%19% CSU
Spread
BOIS -12.4
Total
57
Moneyline
BOIS-425CSU+425
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BOIS advantageevenCSU advantage →
BOIS throw
BOIS +38
BOIS run
BOIS +63
CSU throw
BOIS coverage #43BOIS pass rush #133
BOIS +23
CSU run
CSU backs #80BOIS linebackers #65
BOIS +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
over the middle
Juice Vereen
vs
Taebron Bennie-Powell
TE · CSU
FS · BOIS
73.8
70.4
CSU +3
when BOIS runs
Dylan Riley
vs
Paul Tangelo
RB · BOIS
MLB · CSU
79.1
59.0
BOIS +20
when CSU throws
Tay Lanier
vs
Jaden Mickey
X · CSU
CB1 · BOIS
52.7
76.9
BOIS +24
when CSU runs
Mel Brown
vs
Jayden Virgin-Morgan
RB · CSU
MLB · BOIS
55.6
72.5
BOIS +17
off the edge· hunting Madsen
Roger Carreon
vs
Gabe Jones
LT · BOIS
EDGE · CSU
59.5
62.7
CSU +3
when BOIS throws
Ben Ford
vs
Lemondre Joe
X · BOIS
CB1 · CSU
59.0
56.5
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878
Colorado State
TEJuice Vereen
73.84/287
LBPaul Tangelo
59.0310/878
DBLemondre Joe
56.5574/1427
RBMel Brown
55.6161/514
WRTay Lanier
52.7240/777
DBJahari Rogers
51.6714/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Boise State
opponent
Colorado State
home+2.8
Texas State#59
-17.1away
home+9.0
Utah State#92
-10.9away
away+2.1
Fresno State#87
-12.9away
home+16.8
Oregon State#122
+1.8home
away+1.9
Washington State#85
-13.0away
home+3.1
San Diego State#64
-11.8home

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 5
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBOIS +12.495% interval: -36.4 to 11.580% interval: -29.8 to 4.9-30+5BOIS wins 81%CSU wins 19%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BOIS 35–21 CSUCSU 18–60 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCSU 21–56 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 25–53 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCSU 28–49 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCSU 32–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 35–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCSU 39–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCSU 42–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 46–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 14–56 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 18–53 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 21–49 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCSU 25–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCSU 28–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCSU 32–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 35–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCSU 39–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCSU 42–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 11–53 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 14–49 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 18–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 21–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 25–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 28–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCSU 32–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCSU 35–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCSU 39–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 7–49 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 11–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 14–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCSU 18–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCSU 21–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCSU 25–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 28–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCSU 32–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 35–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 4–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 7–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 11–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 14–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 18–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 21–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCSU 25–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 28–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCSU 32–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 0–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 4–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCSU 7–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCSU 11–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCSU 14–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 18–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCSU 21–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCSU 25–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCSU 28–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CSU 0–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 4–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCSU 7–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 11–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCSU 14–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCSU 18–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCSU 21–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 25–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalBOIS +42BOIS +28BOIS +14PKCSU +14margin →