CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 6:00 PM ET
#29Away
Boise State
5-1 · AVR 67.8
38p
#118Home
Colorado State
2-3 · AVR 50.4
24p
Forecast win probability
BOIS 81.6%18.4% CSU
Projected margin
BOIS by 13.8
Projected total
61
80% outcome range
BOIS 32 to CSU 5
Win probability
BOIS 81.6%

Current team profiles

Boise State
Colorado State

When Boise State has the ball

Passing

BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
BOIS offense
#18
CSU defense
#129
EPA comparison
0.44
#18
0.43
#129
Pass EPA

Rushing

BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
BOIS offense
#25
CSU defense
#130
EPA comparison
0.22
#25
0.22
#130
Rush EPA

Drive success

BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
BOIS offense
#26
CSU defense
#138
Success rates
49%
#26
52%
#138
Success rate
More metrics
0.32
#10
0.23
#126
EPA / play
1.22
#75
1.15
#31
Explosiveness
9%
#5
16%
#77
Havoc

When Colorado State has the ball

Passing

Same rank
BOIS defense
#55
CSU offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.10
#55
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

CSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
BOIS defense
#93
CSU offense
#9
EPA comparison
0.10
#93
0.27
#9
Rush EPA

Drive success

BOIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
BOIS defense
#40
CSU offense
#53
Success rates
37%
#40
45%
#53
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#64
0.24
#30
EPA / play
1.62
#138
1.43
#4
Explosiveness
18%
#31
16%
#94
Havoc

Current key players

Boise State
QBMaddux Madsen
1058 yds · 11 TD · 0 INT
90.616/729
TEMatt Wagner
17 rec · 196 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.9
Run blocking
75.5
Penalties
0
88.17/1017
RBSire Gaines
234 yds · 2 TD · 5.2 YPC
79.295/1044
LBMax Stege
9 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.3
Coverage
59.9
Pressures
18
Pass-rush snaps
132
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.1156/1796
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
11 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.8
Coverage
63.1
Pressures
13
Pass-rush snaps
115
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
75.1181/1796
WRRasean Jones
23 rec · 359 yds · 1 TD
75.0125/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Rasean Jones · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Jones is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cam Bates · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bates is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 24th.

Colorado State
QBHauss Hejny
619 yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
78.781/729
RBDurell Robinson
266 yds · 4 TD · 4.3 YPC
78.897/1044
LBCaleb Otlewski
2 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.5
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
76.4150/1796
WRRJ Vick
24 rec · 367 yds · 4 TD
74.3139/2069
WRTommy Maher
9 rec · 83 yds · 0 TD
70.7235/2069
SJace Bellah
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.8
Missed tackles
0
68.4550/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Troy Foster · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Foster has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Oregon state on Saturday.

  • Grant Houser · TEout · 2026-10-02

    Houser has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Oregon state on Saturday.

  • Hauss Hejny · QBQues. · 2026-10-07

    Hejny is laid up with a hamstring injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Texas State on Thursday, October 15th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BOIS
CSU
vs
Offense
90.6
#18 of 138
QB
78.7
#64 of 138
79.0
#39 of 138
RB
78.3
#45 of 138
71.5
#67 of 138
WR
68.9
#95 of 138
88.1
#7 of 138
TE
60.8
#113 of 138
70.2
#53 of 138
OL
67.6
#71 of 138
Defense
68.0
#122 of 138
DL
68.6
#119 of 138
74.8
#62 of 138
LB
69.1
#111 of 138
69.3
#107 of 138
DB
66.2
#132 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Boise State
opponent
Colorado State
H+16.0
ORST#44
-30.0H
H+19.0
USU#97
-6.7A
H+13.1
TXST#55
-8.7A
A+7.0
FRES#69
-12.3A
A+9.6
WSU#101
-6.9A
H+10.2
SDSU#104
-6.3H