AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sun Sep 20 · 3:00 AM
Valley Cup
#87Away
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
31p
#123Home
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
24p
FRES 70%30% SJSU
Spread
FRES -7.7
Total
55
Moneyline
FRES-239SJSU+239
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FRES advantageevenSJSU advantage →
FRES throw
SJSU pass rush #78
even
FRES run
FRES +10
SJSU throw
FRES +59
SJSU run
FRES linebackers #91
FRES +41

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Simeon Harris
X · SJSU
CB1 · FRES
52.8
91.7
FRES +39
off the edge· hunting Martin
Rolan Fullwood
vs
Ian Shewell
LT · FRES
EDGE · SJSU
52.6
73.0
SJSU +20
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · FRES
MLB · SJSU
64.5
58.0
FRES +7
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Justin Johnson
RB · SJSU
MLB · FRES
49.8
61.1
FRES +11
when FRES throws
Josiah Freeman
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · FRES
CB1 · SJSU
52.5
53.8
dead even
over the middle
Brock Lium
vs
Runye Norton
TE · FRES
FS · SJSU
37.8
36.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFRES +7.795% interval: -31.6 to 16.280% interval: -25.1 to 9.7-25+10FRES wins 70%SJSU wins 30%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FRES 32–25 SJSUSJSU 21–56 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 25–53 FRES neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSJSU 28–49 FRES neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSJSU 32–46 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 35–42 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 39–39 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 42–35 FRES neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 46–32 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSJSU 49–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSJSU 18–53 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 21–49 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 25–46 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 28–42 FRES neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSJSU 32–39 FRES neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSJSU 35–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSJSU 39–32 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSJSU 42–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 46–25 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 14–49 FRES neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 18–46 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 21–42 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 25–39 FRES neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSJSU 28–35 FRES neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSJSU 32–32 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 35–28 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 39–25 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 42–21 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 11–46 FRES neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 14–42 FRES neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 18–39 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 21–35 FRES neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSJSU 25–32 FRES neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSJSU 28–28 FRES neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSJSU 32–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 35–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 39–18 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 7–42 FRES neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 11–39 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 14–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 18–32 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 21–28 FRES neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSJSU 25–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 28–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 32–18 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 35–14 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 4–39 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 7–35 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 11–32 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 14–28 FRES neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSJSU 18–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 21–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSJSU 25–18 FRES neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSJSU 28–14 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 32–11 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 0–35 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 4–32 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 7–28 FRES neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSJSU 11–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 14–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSJSU 18–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 21–14 FRES neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSJSU 25–11 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSJSU 28–7 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalFRES +35FRES +21FRES +7SJSU +7SJSU +21margin →