AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sun Nov 8 · 2:30 AM
#87Away
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
29p
#92Home
Utah State
0-0 · AVR 42.3
30p
FRES 49%51% USU
Spread
USU -0.5
Total
59
Moneyline
FRES+105USU-105
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FRES advantageevenUSU advantage →
FRES throw
USU +22
FRES run
FRES +6
USU throw
USU protection #88
FRES +31
USU run
FRES linebackers #91
FRES +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USU throws
Kahanu Davis
vs
Simeon Harris
X · USU
CB1 · FRES
53.2
91.7
FRES +38
when USU runs
Javen Jacobs
vs
Justin Johnson
RB · USU
MLB · FRES
71.1
61.1
USU +10
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
John Miller
RB · FRES
MLB · USU
64.5
66.6
dead even
over the middle
Kache Kaio
vs
Loyall Mouzon
TE · USU
FS · FRES
51.4
78.6
FRES +27
when FRES throws
Josiah Freeman
vs
Chika Ebunoha
X · FRES
CB1 · USU
52.5
71.6
USU +19
off the edge· hunting Barnes
Elia Migao
vs
Sione Noa
LT · USU
EDGE · FRES
41.1
78.7
FRES +38

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

Utah State
QBBryson Barnes
71.737/308
SChika Ebunoha
71.6199/1427
RBJaven Jacobs
71.147/514
LBJohn Miller
66.6192/878
SIke Larsen
66.6317/1427
LBBronson Olevao Jr.
65.1210/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Fresno State
opponent
Utah State
home+12.2
Oregon State#122
+5.2away
home-2.1
Boise State#60
-9.0away
away-2.6
Washington State#85
+0.4home
away-6.4
San Diego State#64
-8.4away
home+12.9
Colorado State#129
+10.9home
away-6.8
Texas State#59
-8.7away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSU +0.595% interval: -23.4 to 24.480% interval: -16.9 to 17.9-17+18FRES wins 49%USU wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USU 28–28 FRESUSU 25–53 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSU 28–49 FRES neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 32–46 FRES neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSU 35–42 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSU 39–39 FRES neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSU 42–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSU 46–32 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSU 49–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSU 53–25 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSU 21–49 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSU 25–46 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSU 28–42 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSU 32–39 FRES neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSU 35–35 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSU 39–32 FRES neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSU 42–28 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSU 46–25 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSU 49–21 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 18–46 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 21–42 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSU 25–39 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSU 28–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSU 32–32 FRES neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSU 35–28 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSU 39–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSU 42–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSU 46–18 FRES neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSU 14–42 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 18–39 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSU 21–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSU 25–32 FRES neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSU 28–28 FRES neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSU 32–25 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSU 35–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSU 39–18 FRES neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSU 42–14 FRES neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSU 11–39 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 14–35 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSU 18–32 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSU 21–28 FRES neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSU 25–25 FRES neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSU 28–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSU 32–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSU 35–14 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSU 39–11 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 7–35 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSU 11–32 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSU 14–28 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSU 18–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSU 21–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSU 25–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSU 28–14 FRES neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSU 32–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSU 35–7 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSU 4–32 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 7–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 11–25 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSU 14–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSU 18–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSU 21–14 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSU 25–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSU 28–7 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 32–4 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalFRES +28FRES +14PKUSU +14USU +28margin →