AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sun Sep 13 · 2:30 AM
#111Away
Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
27p
#87Home
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
29p
SAC 44%56% FRES
Spread
FRES -2.1
Total
57
Moneyline
SAC+126FRES-126
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SAC advantageevenFRES advantage →
SAC throw
FRES +83
SAC run
FRES linebackers #91
FRES +52
FRES throw
FRES +8
FRES run
FRES +28

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SAC throws
Matt Coleman
vs
Simeon Harris
X · SAC
CB1 · FRES
38.4
91.7
FRES +53
when SAC runs
Cincere Rhaney
vs
Justin Johnson
RB · SAC
MLB · FRES
46.2
61.1
FRES +15
off the edge· hunting Martin
Rolan Fullwood
vs
Isiah Chala
LT · FRES
EDGE · SAC
52.6
52.5
dead even
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
Tim Thomas
RB · FRES
MLB · SAC
64.5
28.6
FRES +36
when FRES throws
Josiah Freeman
vs
Boogsie Silvera
X · FRES
CB1 · SAC
52.5
33.6
FRES +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sacramento State
RBCincere Rhaney
46.2403/514
QBCarson Conklin
39.5283/308
WRMatt Coleman
38.4657/777
SBoogsie Silvera
33.61181/1427
LBTim Thomas
28.6803/878
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFRES +2.195% interval: -21.8 to 2680% interval: -15.3 to 19.5-15+20SAC wins 44%FRES wins 56%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FRES 28–28 SACFRES 25–53 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 28–49 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 32–46 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 35–42 SAC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFRES 39–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 42–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFRES 46–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFRES 49–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 53–25 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 21–49 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 25–46 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFRES 28–42 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFRES 32–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFRES 35–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFRES 39–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 42–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 46–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 49–21 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 18–46 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 21–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFRES 25–39 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 28–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 32–32 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFRES 35–28 SAC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFRES 39–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFRES 42–21 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFRES 46–18 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFRES 14–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 18–39 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 21–35 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 25–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFRES 28–28 SAC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFRES 32–25 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFRES 35–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFRES 39–18 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFRES 42–14 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFRES 11–39 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 14–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFRES 18–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFRES 21–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFRES 25–25 SAC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFRES 28–21 SAC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFRES 32–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFRES 35–14 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFRES 39–11 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFRES 7–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 11–32 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFRES 14–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFRES 18–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 21–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 25–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFRES 28–14 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 32–11 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 35–7 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 4–32 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 7–28 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 11–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 14–21 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 18–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFRES 21–14 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 25–11 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFRES 28–7 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFRES 32–4 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalSAC +28SAC +14PKFRES +14FRES +28margin →