AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#122Away
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 30.8
22p
#87Home
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
34p
ORST 20%80% FRES
Spread
FRES -12.2
Total
55
Moneyline
ORST+407FRES-407
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ORST advantageevenFRES advantage →
ORST throw
ORST protection #57
FRES +63
ORST run
FRES linebackers #91
FRES +19
FRES throw
ORST +15
FRES run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
Aiden Sullivan
RB · FRES
MLB · ORST
64.5
70.3
ORST +6
when ORST throws
Karson Boschma
vs
Simeon Harris
X · ORST
CB1 · FRES
42.5
91.7
FRES +49
off the edge· hunting Murphy
Nathan Elu
vs
Sione Noa
LT · ORST
EDGE · FRES
48.3
78.7
FRES +30
when FRES throws
Josiah Freeman
vs
Sailasa Vadrawale III
X · FRES
CB1 · ORST
52.5
72.4
ORST +20
over the middle
Gabe Milbourn
vs
Loyall Mouzon
TE · ORST
FS · FRES
40.4
78.6
FRES +38
off the edge· hunting Martin
Rolan Fullwood
vs
Tygee Hill
LT · FRES
EDGE · ORST
52.6
65.5
ORST +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oregon State
DBSailasa Vadrawale III
72.4183/1427
LBAiden Sullivan
70.3141/878
LBTakari Hickle
67.3189/878
DBZephen Walker
57.5549/1427
DBHarlem Howard
56.2585/1427
RBAJ Newberry
53.9182/514
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oregon State
opponent
Fresno State
away-1.8
Colorado State#129
+12.9home
away-16.8
Boise State#60
-2.1home
home-5.2
Utah State#92
-0.5away
home-11.1
San Diego State#64
-6.4away
home-7.3
Washington State#85
-2.6away
home-11.4
Texas State#59
-6.8away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFRES +12.295% interval: -11.7 to 36.180% interval: -5.2 to 29.6-5+30ORST wins 20%FRES wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FRES 35–21 ORSTFRES 32–46 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 35–42 ORST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFRES 39–39 ORST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFRES 42–35 ORST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 46–32 ORST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFRES 49–28 ORST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 53–25 ORST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 56–21 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 60–18 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 28–42 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 32–39 ORST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 35–35 ORST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFRES 39–32 ORST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFRES 42–28 ORST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 46–25 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFRES 49–21 ORST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFRES 53–18 ORST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFRES 56–14 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 25–39 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 28–35 ORST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFRES 32–32 ORST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 35–28 ORST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFRES 39–25 ORST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFRES 42–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 46–18 ORST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 49–14 ORST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFRES 53–11 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 21–35 ORST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFRES 25–32 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFRES 28–28 ORST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFRES 32–25 ORST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFRES 35–21 ORST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFRES 39–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFRES 42–14 ORST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFRES 46–11 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 49–7 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 18–32 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 21–28 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFRES 25–25 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFRES 28–21 ORST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFRES 32–18 ORST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFRES 35–14 ORST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 39–11 ORST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 42–7 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 46–4 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 14–28 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 18–25 ORST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 21–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 25–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 28–14 ORST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFRES 32–11 ORST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFRES 35–7 ORST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFRES 39–4 ORST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFRES 42–0 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 11–25 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 14–21 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 18–18 ORST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFRES 21–14 ORST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFRES 25–11 ORST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 28–7 ORST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFRES 32–4 ORST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFRES 35–0 ORST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalORST +14PKFRES +14FRES +28FRES +42margin →