AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sun Nov 22 · 12:30 AM
#129Away
Colorado State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
21p
#87Home
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
33p
CSU 19%81% FRES
Spread
FRES -12.9
Total
54
Moneyline
CSU+425FRES-425
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CSU advantageevenFRES advantage →
CSU throw
FRES +64
CSU run
CSU backs #80FRES linebackers #91
FRES +37
FRES throw
FRES +8
FRES run
FRES +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
over the middle
Juice Vereen
vs
Loyall Mouzon
TE · CSU
FS · FRES
73.8
78.6
FRES +5
when CSU throws
Tay Lanier
vs
Simeon Harris
X · CSU
CB1 · FRES
52.7
91.7
FRES +39
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
Paul Tangelo
RB · FRES
MLB · CSU
64.5
59.0
FRES +6
when CSU runs
Mel Brown
vs
Justin Johnson
RB · CSU
MLB · FRES
55.6
61.1
FRES +5
off the edge· hunting Martin
Rolan Fullwood
vs
Gabe Jones
LT · FRES
EDGE · CSU
52.6
62.7
CSU +10
when FRES throws
Josiah Freeman
vs
Lemondre Joe
X · FRES
CB1 · CSU
52.5
56.5
CSU +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Colorado State
TEJuice Vereen
73.84/287
LBPaul Tangelo
59.0310/878
DBLemondre Joe
56.5574/1427
RBMel Brown
55.6161/514
WRTay Lanier
52.7240/777
DBJahari Rogers
51.6714/1427
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Colorado State
opponent
Fresno State
away-10.9
Utah State#92
-0.5away
away-13.0
Washington State#85
-2.6away
home+1.8
Oregon State#122
+12.2home
away-17.1
Texas State#59
-6.8away
home-12.4
Boise State#60
-2.1home
home-11.8
San Diego State#64
-6.4away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFRES +12.995% interval: -11 to 36.880% interval: -4.5 to 30.3-4+30CSU wins 19%FRES wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FRES 35–21 CSUFRES 32–46 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 35–42 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFRES 39–39 CSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFRES 42–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFRES 46–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 49–28 CSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFRES 53–25 CSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 56–21 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 60–18 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 28–42 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 32–39 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 35–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 39–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFRES 42–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFRES 46–25 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFRES 49–21 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFRES 53–18 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFRES 56–14 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 25–39 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 28–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 32–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFRES 35–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFRES 39–25 CSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFRES 42–21 CSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 46–18 CSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 49–14 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 53–11 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 21–35 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 25–32 CSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFRES 28–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFRES 32–25 CSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFRES 35–21 CSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFRES 39–18 CSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFRES 42–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 46–11 CSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFRES 49–7 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 18–32 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 21–28 CSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFRES 25–25 CSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 28–21 CSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFRES 32–18 CSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFRES 35–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFRES 39–11 CSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFRES 42–7 CSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFRES 46–4 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 14–28 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 18–25 CSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 21–21 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 25–18 CSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 28–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFRES 32–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFRES 35–7 CSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFRES 39–4 CSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFRES 42–0 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 11–25 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 14–21 CSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFRES 18–18 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFRES 21–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 25–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFRES 28–7 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 32–4 CSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFRES 35–0 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCSU +14PKFRES +14FRES +28FRES +42margin →