AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sun Sep 27 · 2:00 AM
#127Away
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
20p
#87Home
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
33p
RICE 18%82% FRES
Spread
FRES -13.0
Total
53
Moneyline
RICE+447FRES-447
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RICE advantageevenFRES advantage →
RICE throw
FRES +64
RICE run
RICE backs #76FRES linebackers #91
FRES +33
FRES throw
FRES +5
FRES run
FRES +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Simeon Harris
X · RICE
CB1 · FRES
48.3
91.7
FRES +43
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
Justin Johnson
RB · RICE
MLB · FRES
65.9
61.1
RICE +5
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
Stone Combs
RB · FRES
MLB · RICE
64.5
55.5
FRES +9
off the edge· hunting Martin
Rolan Fullwood
vs
Chibby Nwajuaku
LT · FRES
EDGE · RICE
52.6
62.7
RICE +10
over the middle
James Falk
vs
Loyall Mouzon
TE · RICE
FS · FRES
35.0
78.6
FRES +44
when FRES throws
Josiah Freeman
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · FRES
CB1 · RICE
52.5
55.9
RICE +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFRES +13.095% interval: -10.9 to 36.980% interval: -4.4 to 30.3-4+30RICE wins 18%FRES wins 82%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FRES 35–21 RICEFRES 32–46 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 35–42 RICE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFRES 39–39 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFRES 42–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 46–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 49–28 RICE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFRES 53–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 56–21 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 60–18 RICE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 28–42 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 32–39 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 35–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFRES 39–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFRES 42–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFRES 46–25 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 49–21 RICE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFRES 53–18 RICE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFRES 56–14 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 25–39 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 28–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 32–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFRES 35–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFRES 39–25 RICE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFRES 42–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 46–18 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 49–14 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 53–11 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 21–35 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 25–32 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFRES 28–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFRES 32–25 RICE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFRES 35–21 RICE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFRES 39–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFRES 42–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 46–11 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFRES 49–7 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 18–32 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 21–28 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFRES 25–25 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 28–21 RICE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFRES 32–18 RICE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFRES 35–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFRES 39–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 42–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFRES 46–4 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 14–28 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 18–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFRES 21–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 25–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 28–14 RICE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFRES 32–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFRES 35–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 39–4 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 42–0 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 11–25 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 14–21 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 18–18 RICE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFRES 21–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 25–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFRES 28–7 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFRES 32–4 RICE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFRES 35–0 RICE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalRICE +14PKFRES +14FRES +28FRES +42margin →