AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sun Oct 4 · 1:30 AM
#87Away
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
26p
#85Home
Washington State
0-0 · AVR 45.3
28p
FRES 43%57% WSU
Spread
WSU -2.6
Total
54
Moneyline
FRES+131WSU-131
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FRES advantageevenWSU advantage →
FRES throw
WSU +20
FRES run
even
WSU throw
FRES +71
WSU run
WSU backs #73FRES linebackers #91
FRES +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WSU throws
Tony Freeman
vs
Simeon Harris
X · WSU
CB1 · FRES
50.2
91.7
FRES +41
off the edge· hunting Martin
Rolan Fullwood
vs
Paul Hutson III
LT · FRES
EDGE · WSU
52.6
84.5
WSU +32
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
DJ Warner
RB · FRES
MLB · WSU
64.5
69.6
WSU +5
over the middle
Trey Leckner
vs
Loyall Mouzon
TE · WSU
FS · FRES
47.8
78.6
FRES +31
when WSU runs
Kirby Vorhees
vs
Justin Johnson
RB · WSU
MLB · FRES
63.2
61.1
dead even
when FRES throws
Josiah Freeman
vs
Jack Bal
X · FRES
CB1 · WSU
52.5
62.4
WSU +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

Washington State
LBDJ Warner
69.6153/878
RBKirby Vorhees
63.283/514
SJack Bal
62.4420/1427
CBJalil Tucker
54.9627/1427
CBJamarey Smith
53.0678/1427
WRTony Freeman
50.2307/777

also out — T. Leckner (TE), Hudson Cedarland (TE), J. Dugger (QB)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Fresno State
opponent
Washington State
home+12.2
Oregon State#122
+7.3away
home-2.1
Boise State#60
-1.9home
away-6.8
Texas State#59
-6.6away
away-6.4
San Diego State#64
-6.3away
away-0.5
Utah State#92
-0.4away
home+12.9
Colorado State#129
+13.0home

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWSU +2.695% interval: -21.3 to 26.580% interval: -14.8 to 20-15+20FRES wins 43%WSU wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WSU 28–28 FRESWSU 25–53 FRES neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWSU 28–49 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWSU 32–46 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWSU 35–42 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWSU 39–39 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWSU 42–35 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWSU 46–32 FRES neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWSU 49–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWSU 53–25 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 21–49 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWSU 25–46 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWSU 28–42 FRES neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWSU 32–39 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWSU 35–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWSU 39–32 FRES neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWSU 42–28 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWSU 46–25 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWSU 49–21 FRES neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 18–46 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWSU 21–42 FRES neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWSU 25–39 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWSU 28–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWSU 32–32 FRES neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWSU 35–28 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWSU 39–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 42–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWSU 46–18 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWSU 14–42 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 18–39 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWSU 21–35 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 25–32 FRES neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWSU 28–28 FRES neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWSU 32–25 FRES neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWSU 35–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWSU 39–18 FRES neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWSU 42–14 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWSU 11–39 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 14–35 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWSU 18–32 FRES neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWSU 21–28 FRES neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWSU 25–25 FRES neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWSU 28–21 FRES neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWSU 32–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWSU 35–14 FRES neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWSU 39–11 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWSU 7–35 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWSU 11–32 FRES neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWSU 14–28 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWSU 18–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWSU 21–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWSU 25–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWSU 28–14 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWSU 32–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWSU 35–7 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWSU 4–32 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWSU 7–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWSU 11–25 FRES neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWSU 14–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWSU 18–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWSU 21–14 FRES neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 25–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 28–7 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWSU 32–4 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalFRES +28FRES +14PKWSU +14WSU +28margin →