AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 11:00 PM
#85Away
Washington State
0-0 · AVR 45.3
26p
#59Home
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
32p
WSU 33%67% TXST
Spread
TXST -6.6
Total
58
Moneyline
WSU+205TXST-205
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WSU advantageevenTXST advantage →
WSU throw
TXST +26
WSU run
WSU backs #73
TXST +16
TXST throw
TXST +46
TXST run
TXST line #18TXST backs #97
TXST +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Jaylen Early
vs
Paul Hutson III
LT · TXST
EDGE · WSU
91.1
84.5
TXST +7
when TXST throws
Beau Sparks
vs
Jack Bal
X · TXST
CB1 · WSU
80.3
62.4
TXST +18
when WSU runs
Kirby Vorhees
vs
Terrence Cooks II
RB · WSU
MLB · TXST
63.2
60.0
WSU +3
when TXST runs
Jaylen Jenkins
vs
DJ Warner
RB · TXST
MLB · WSU
53.2
69.6
WSU +16
over the middle
Blake Smith
vs
Kayo Patu
TE · TXST
FS · WSU
64.1
52.6
TXST +11
when WSU throws
Tony Freeman
vs
Ryan Nolan
X · WSU
CB1 · TXST
50.2
65.1
TXST +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Washington State
LBDJ Warner
69.6153/878
RBKirby Vorhees
63.283/514
SJack Bal
62.4420/1427
CBJalil Tucker
54.9627/1427
CBJamarey Smith
53.0678/1427
WRTony Freeman
50.2307/777

also out — T. Leckner (TE), Hudson Cedarland (TE), J. Dugger (QB)

Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Washington State
opponent
Texas State
away-0.4
Utah State#92
+8.7home
home+2.6
Fresno State#87
+6.8home
home+13.0
Colorado State#129
+17.1home
away+7.3
Oregon State#122
+11.4away
away-6.3
San Diego State#64
-2.2away
home-1.9
Boise State#60
-2.8away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTXST +6.695% interval: -17.3 to 30.580% interval: -10.8 to 24-11+24WSU wins 33%TXST wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TXST 32–25 WSUTXST 28–49 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 32–46 WSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 35–42 WSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTXST 39–39 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 42–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 46–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 49–28 WSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 53–25 WSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 56–21 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 25–46 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 28–42 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 32–39 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 35–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 39–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTXST 42–28 WSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 46–25 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 49–21 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 53–18 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 21–42 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 25–39 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 28–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 32–32 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 35–28 WSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTXST 39–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTXST 42–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 46–18 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 49–14 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 18–39 WSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 21–35 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 25–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 28–28 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 32–25 WSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTXST 35–21 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 39–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 42–14 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 46–11 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 14–35 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 18–32 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 21–28 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 25–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTXST 28–21 WSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTXST 32–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTXST 35–14 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 39–11 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 42–7 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 11–32 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 14–28 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 18–25 WSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTXST 21–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 25–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 28–14 WSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 32–11 WSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 35–7 WSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 39–4 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 7–28 WSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 11–25 WSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 14–21 WSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTXST 18–18 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 21–14 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 25–11 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 28–7 WSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTXST 32–4 WSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 35–0 WSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalWSU +21WSU +7TXST +7TXST +21TXST +35margin →