CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Thu Oct 15 · 8:00 PM ET
Away
Colorado State
2-3
27p
Home
Texas State
2-3
35p
Forecast win probability
CSU 28.9%71.1% TXST
Projected margin
TXST by 8.7
Projected total
64
80% outcome range
CSU 10 to TXST 27
Win probability
TXST 71.1%

Current team profiles

Colorado State
Texas State

When Colorado State has the ball

Passing

CSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
CSU offense
#55
TXST defense
#113
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
0.32
#113
Pass EPA

Rushing

CSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
CSU offense
#9
TXST defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.27
#9
-0.04
#34
Rush EPA

Drive success

CSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
CSU offense
#53
TXST defense
#112
Success rates
45%
#53
45%
#112
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#30
0.11
#90
EPA / play
1.43
#4
1.20
#65
Explosiveness
16%
#94
15%
#90
Havoc

When Texas State has the ball

Passing

TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
CSU defense
#129
TXST offense
#14
EPA comparison
0.43
#129
0.48
#14
Pass EPA

Rushing

TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
CSU defense
#130
TXST offense
#63
EPA comparison
0.22
#130
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
CSU defense
#138
TXST offense
#23
Success rates
52%
#138
49%
#23
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#126
0.24
#30
EPA / play
1.15
#31
1.27
#43
Explosiveness
16%
#77
14%
#49
Havoc

Current key players

Colorado State
QBHauss Hejny
619 yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
78.781/729
RBDurell Robinson
266 yds · 4 TD · 4.3 YPC
78.897/1044
LBCaleb Otlewski
2 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.5
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
76.4150/1796
WRRJ Vick
24 rec · 367 yds · 4 TD
74.3139/2069
WRTommy Maher
9 rec · 83 yds · 0 TD
70.7235/2069
SJace Bellah
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.8
Missed tackles
0
68.4550/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Troy Foster · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Foster has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Oregon state on Saturday.

  • Grant Houser · TEout · 2026-10-02

    Houser has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Oregon state on Saturday.

  • Hauss Hejny · QBQues. · 2026-10-07

    Hejny is laid up with a hamstring injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Texas State on Thursday, October 15th.

Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
1226 yds · 13 TD · 5 INT
82.459/729
WRLa'Keyleon Graves
1 rec · 49 yds · 1 TD
83.928/2069
LBAyden Jones
31 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.2
Coverage
74.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
1
80.181/1796
RBJuntavious Harris
80 yds · 1 TD · 8.9 YPC
78.5101/1044
DBRyan Nolan
29 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.8
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
131
Passer rating allowed
102.8
Missed tackles
5
78.486/2969
WRDameon Crowe
4 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
74.8131/2069
Availability reports · 3
  • Cole Snodgrass · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Snodgrass is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up against the San Diego State on Saturday.

  • Kylen Evans · WRQues. · 2026-09-27

    vans is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will face San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.

  • Jordan Sample · LBQues. · 2026-09-27

    Sample is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

CSU
TXST
vs
Offense
78.7
#64 of 138
QB
82.4
#50 of 138
78.3
#45 of 138
RB
78.2
#46 of 138
68.9
#95 of 138
WR
77.4
#21 of 138
60.8
#113 of 138
TE
64.5
#94 of 138
67.6
#71 of 138
OL
69.2
#61 of 138
Defense
68.6
#119 of 138
DL
81.3
#12 of 138
69.1
#111 of 138
LB
75.1
#58 of 138
66.2
#132 of 138
DB
71.2
#81 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Colorado State
opponent
Texas State
H-30.0
ORST#44
+0.2A
A-6.7
USU#97
+4.7H
A-12.3
FRES#69
-0.9H
A-6.9
WSU#101
+4.4H
A-14.0
UTSA#73
-5.0H
H-6.3
SDSU#104
-2.0A
H-13.8
BOIS#29
-13.1A