AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Fri Oct 16
#129Away
Colorado State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
20p
#59Home
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
38p
CSU 12%88% TXST
Spread
TXST -17.1
Total
58
Moneyline
CSU+735TXST-735
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CSU advantageevenTXST advantage →
CSU throw
TXST +19
CSU run
CSU backs #80
TXST +19
TXST throw
TXST +73
TXST run
TXST line #18TXST backs #97
TXST +49

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Jaylen Early
vs
Gabe Jones
LT · TXST
EDGE · CSU
91.1
62.7
TXST +28
when TXST throws
Beau Sparks
vs
Lemondre Joe
X · TXST
CB1 · CSU
80.3
56.5
TXST +24
over the middle
Juice Vereen
vs
Craig Royal Jr.
TE · CSU
FS · TXST
73.8
51.3
CSU +23
when CSU throws
Tay Lanier
vs
Ryan Nolan
X · CSU
CB1 · TXST
52.7
65.1
TXST +12
when CSU runs
Mel Brown
vs
Terrence Cooks II
RB · CSU
MLB · TXST
55.6
60.0
TXST +4
when TXST runs
Jaylen Jenkins
vs
Paul Tangelo
RB · TXST
MLB · CSU
53.2
59.0
CSU +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Colorado State
TEJuice Vereen
73.84/287
LBPaul Tangelo
59.0310/878
DBLemondre Joe
56.5574/1427
RBMel Brown
55.6161/514
WRTay Lanier
52.7240/777
DBJahari Rogers
51.6714/1427
Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Colorado State
opponent
Texas State
away-19.3
UTSA#62
+0.4home
away-12.9
Fresno State#87
+6.8home
away-10.9
Utah State#92
+8.7home
away-13.0
Washington State#85
+6.6home
home-11.8
San Diego State#64
-2.2away
home-12.4
Boise State#60
-2.8away
home+1.8
Oregon State#122
+11.4away

Projected margin

80% between -0 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTXST +17.195% interval: -6.8 to 4180% interval: -0.3 to 34.50+35CSU wins 12%TXST wins 88%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TXST 35–21 CSUTXST 32–46 CSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTXST 35–42 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 39–39 CSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 42–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 46–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 49–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 53–25 CSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 56–21 CSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 60–18 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 28–42 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 32–39 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 35–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTXST 39–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 42–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTXST 46–25 CSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTXST 49–21 CSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 53–18 CSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 56–14 CSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 25–39 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 28–35 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 32–32 CSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTXST 35–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 39–25 CSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTXST 42–21 CSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTXST 46–18 CSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTXST 49–14 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 53–11 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 21–35 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 25–32 CSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 28–28 CSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTXST 32–25 CSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 35–21 CSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTXST 39–18 CSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTXST 42–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 46–11 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 49–7 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 18–32 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 21–28 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 25–25 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 28–21 CSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTXST 32–18 CSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTXST 35–14 CSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 39–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 42–7 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTXST 46–4 CSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 14–28 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 18–25 CSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 21–21 CSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTXST 25–18 CSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 28–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 32–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 35–7 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 39–4 CSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTXST 42–0 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 11–25 CSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTXST 14–21 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 18–18 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 21–14 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 25–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 28–7 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 32–4 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTXST 35–0 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCSU +14PKTXST +14TXST +28TXST +42margin →