Passing
UNT offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNT offense
- #12
- TXST defense
- #113
EPA comparison
0.49
#12
0.32
#113
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UNT 60.4%39.6% TXST
- Projected margin
- UNT by 4.8
- Projected total
- 66
- 80% outcome range
- UNT 25 to TXST 14
- Win probability
- UNT 60.4%
FinalUNT 35 · TXST 49model had -4.8, off by 18.8
Current team profiles
North Texas
Texas StateWhen North Texas has the ball
Rushing
TXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNT offense
- #55
- TXST defense
- #34
EPA comparison
0.14
#55
-0.04
#34
Rush EPA
Drive success
UNT offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNT offense
- #30
- TXST defense
- #112
Success rates
48%
#30
45%
#112
Success rate
More metrics
0.30
#18
0.11
#90
EPA / play
1.33
#21
1.20
#65
Explosiveness
10%
#12
15%
#90
Havoc
When Texas State has the ball
Passing
TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNT defense
- #98
- TXST offense
- #14
EPA comparison
0.25
#98
0.48
#14
Pass EPA
Rushing
UNT defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNT defense
- #56
- TXST offense
- #63
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.12
#63
Rush EPA
Drive success
TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNT defense
- #78
- TXST offense
- #23
Success rates
41%
#78
49%
#23
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#76
0.24
#30
EPA / play
1.24
#81
1.27
#43
Explosiveness
17%
#52
14%
#49
Havoc
Current key players
North TexasQBTayven Jackson
1510 yds · 10 TD · 4 INT
90.223/729
TEJerious Singletary
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Run blocking
- 81.9
- Penalties
- 0
82.819/1017
RBJahiem White
571 yds · 8 TD · 6.7 YPC
81.263/1044
WRTJ Chukwurah
7 rec · 92 yds · 1 TD
80.454/2069
CBKeshawn Davila
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 61.5
- Coverage
- 79.7
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 16
- Passer rating allowed
- 16.7
- Missed tackles
- 4
78.488/2969
WRKyle Koch
11 rec · 163 yds · 2 TD
78.074/2069
Availability reports · 4
- Corri Milliner · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Milliner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Navy on October 24th.
- James Tyre · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Tyre is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Navy on October 24th.
- Drew Clemens · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Clemens is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Navy on October 24th.
- Victor Aderungboye · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Aderungboye is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Navy on October 24th.
Texas StateQBBrad Jackson
1226 yds · 13 TD · 5 INT
82.459/729
WRLa'Keyleon Graves
1 rec · 49 yds · 1 TD
83.928/2069
LBAyden Jones
31 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.2
- Coverage
- 74.7
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 14
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.181/1796
RBJuntavious Harris
80 yds · 1 TD · 8.9 YPC
78.5101/1044
DBRyan Nolan
29 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 65.8
- Coverage
- 80.3
- Targets allowed
- 17
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 131
- Passer rating allowed
- 102.8
- Missed tackles
- 5
78.486/2969
WRDameon Crowe
4 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
74.8131/2069
Availability reports · 3
- Cole Snodgrass · TEout · 2026-10-01
Snodgrass is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up against the San Diego State on Saturday.
- Kylen Evans · WRQues. · 2026-09-27
vans is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will face San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.
- Jordan Sample · LBQues. · 2026-09-27
Sample is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
UNTNorth Texas
TXSTTexas State
vs
Offense
90.2
#22 of 138
QB
Quarterback
82.4
#50 of 138
77.8
#48 of 138
RB
Running backs
78.2
#46 of 138
77.0
#27 of 138
WR
Receivers
77.4
#21 of 138
82.8
#19 of 138
TE
Tight ends
64.5
#94 of 138
64.9
#96 of 138
OL
Offensive line
69.2
#61 of 138
Defense
76.3
#42 of 138
DL
Defensive line
81.3
#12 of 138
76.4
#49 of 138
LB
Linebackers
75.1
#58 of 138
74.2
#43 of 138
DB
Secondary
71.2
#81 of 138