AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sun Sep 20 · 2:00 AM
#80Away
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
29p
#59Home
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
34p
UNT 36%64% TXST
Spread
TXST -5.0
Total
64
Moneyline
UNT+177TXST-177
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNT advantageevenTXST advantage →
UNT throw
UNT +14
UNT run
TXST +11
TXST throw
TXST +45
TXST run
TXST line #18TXST backs #97
TXST +22

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Jaylen Early
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · TXST
EDGE · UNT
91.1
70.7
TXST +20
when TXST throws
Beau Sparks
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · TXST
CB1 · UNT
80.3
73.0
TXST +7
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Neto Umeozulu
vs
DonTerry Russell
LT · UNT
EDGE · TXST
42.5
83.6
TXST +41
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Ryan Nolan
X · UNT
CB1 · TXST
56.0
65.1
TXST +9
over the middle
Blake Smith
vs
Julian Knox Sr.
TE · TXST
FS · UNT
64.1
52.4
TXST +12
when TXST runs
Jaylen Jenkins
vs
Aaron Alexander
RB · TXST
MLB · UNT
53.2
58.9
UNT +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777
Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTXST +5.095% interval: -18.9 to 28.980% interval: -12.4 to 22.4-12+22UNT wins 36%TXST wins 64%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TXST 35–28 UNTTXST 32–53 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 35–49 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 39–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 42–42 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 46–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 49–35 UNT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 53–32 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 56–28 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 60–25 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 28–49 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 32–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 35–42 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 39–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 42–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTXST 46–32 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 49–28 UNT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 53–25 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 56–21 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 25–46 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 28–42 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 32–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 35–35 UNT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTXST 39–32 UNT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTXST 42–28 UNT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 46–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 49–21 UNT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 53–18 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 21–42 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 25–39 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 28–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 32–32 UNT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTXST 35–28 UNT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTXST 39–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTXST 42–21 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 46–18 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 49–14 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 18–39 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 21–35 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 25–32 UNT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 28–28 UNT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 32–25 UNT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTXST 35–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 39–18 UNT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTXST 42–14 UNT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 46–11 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 14–35 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 18–32 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 21–28 UNT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 25–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 28–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 32–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 35–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTXST 39–11 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 42–7 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 11–32 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 14–28 UNT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 18–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTXST 21–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 25–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 28–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 32–11 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 35–7 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 39–4 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalUNT +21UNT +7TXST +7TXST +21TXST +35margin →