AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sun Nov 8 · 3:30 AM
#59Away
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
35p
#122Home
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 30.8
24p
TXST 78%22% ORST
Spread
TXST -11.4
Total
59
Moneyline
TXST-361ORST+361
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TXST advantageevenORST advantage →
TXST throw
TXST +50
TXST run
TXST line #18TXST backs #97
TXST +17
ORST throw
ORST protection #57
TXST +18
ORST run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Jaylen Early
vs
Tygee Hill
LT · TXST
EDGE · ORST
91.1
65.5
TXST +26
when TXST throws
Beau Sparks
vs
Sailasa Vadrawale III
X · TXST
CB1 · ORST
80.3
72.4
TXST +8
off the edge· hunting Murphy
Nathan Elu
vs
DonTerry Russell
LT · ORST
EDGE · TXST
48.3
83.6
TXST +35
when TXST runs
Jaylen Jenkins
vs
Aiden Sullivan
RB · TXST
MLB · ORST
53.2
70.3
ORST +17
over the middle
Blake Smith
vs
Trey Glasper
TE · TXST
FS · ORST
64.1
51.1
TXST +13
when ORST runs
AJ Newberry
vs
Terrence Cooks II
RB · ORST
MLB · TXST
53.9
60.0
TXST +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878
Oregon State
DBSailasa Vadrawale III
72.4183/1427
LBAiden Sullivan
70.3141/878
LBTakari Hickle
67.3189/878
DBZephen Walker
57.5549/1427
DBHarlem Howard
56.2585/1427
RBAJ Newberry
53.9182/514

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas State
opponent
Oregon State
home+6.8
Fresno State#87
-12.2away
home+17.1
Colorado State#129
-1.8away
away-2.8
Boise State#60
-16.8away
home+8.7
Utah State#92
-5.2home
home+6.6
Washington State#85
-7.3home
away-2.2
San Diego State#64
-11.1home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTXST +11.495% interval: -35.3 to 12.580% interval: -28.8 to 6-29+6TXST wins 78%ORST wins 22%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TXST 35–21 ORSTORST 18–60 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 21–56 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 25–53 TXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORST 28–49 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORST 32–46 TXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 35–42 TXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 39–39 TXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 42–35 TXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORST 46–32 TXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 14–56 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 18–53 TXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORST 21–49 TXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORST 25–46 TXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 28–42 TXST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 32–39 TXST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORST 35–35 TXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORST 39–32 TXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 42–28 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 11–53 TXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 14–49 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 18–46 TXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 21–42 TXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORST 25–39 TXST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORST 28–35 TXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORST 32–32 TXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 35–28 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORST 39–25 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 7–49 TXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 11–46 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 14–42 TXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 18–39 TXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORST 21–35 TXST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORST 25–32 TXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORST 28–28 TXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 32–25 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORST 35–21 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 4–46 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 7–42 TXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORST 11–39 TXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORST 14–35 TXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 18–32 TXST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 21–28 TXST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORST 25–25 TXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORST 28–21 TXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 32–18 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 0–42 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 4–39 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 7–35 TXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORST 11–32 TXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORST 14–28 TXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 18–25 TXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 21–21 TXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 25–18 TXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORST 28–14 TXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ORST 0–35 TXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 4–32 TXST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORST 7–28 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORST 11–25 TXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 14–21 TXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 18–18 TXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 21–14 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 25–11 TXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalTXST +42TXST +28TXST +14PKORST +14margin →