CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 10:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TXST 50.5%49.5% ORST
Projected margin
TXST by 0.2
Projected total
62
80% outcome range
TXST 19 to ORST 18
Win probability
TXST 50.5%

Current team profiles

Texas State
Oregon State

When Texas State has the ball

Passing

TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
TXST offense
#14
ORST defense
#49
EPA comparison
0.48
#14
0.08
#49
Pass EPA

Rushing

ORST defense
Higher-ranked profile
TXST offense
#63
ORST defense
#52
EPA comparison
0.12
#63
0.01
#52
Rush EPA

Drive success

TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
TXST offense
#23
ORST defense
#71
Success rates
49%
#23
40%
#71
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#30
0.04
#55
EPA / play
1.27
#43
1.08
#18
Explosiveness
14%
#49
17%
#45
Havoc

When Oregon State has the ball

Passing

ORST offense
Higher-ranked profile
TXST defense
#113
ORST offense
#11
EPA comparison
0.32
#113
0.50
#11
Pass EPA

Rushing

TXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
TXST defense
#34
ORST offense
#81
EPA comparison
-0.04
#34
0.08
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

ORST offense
Higher-ranked profile
TXST defense
#112
ORST offense
#11
Success rates
45%
#112
51%
#11
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#90
0.32
#10
EPA / play
1.20
#65
1.26
#45
Explosiveness
15%
#90
11%
#21
Havoc

Current key players

Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
1226 yds · 13 TD · 5 INT
82.459/729
WRLa'Keyleon Graves
1 rec · 49 yds · 1 TD
83.928/2069
LBAyden Jones
31 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.2
Coverage
74.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
1
80.181/1796
RBJuntavious Harris
80 yds · 1 TD · 8.9 YPC
78.5101/1044
DBRyan Nolan
29 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.8
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
131
Passer rating allowed
102.8
Missed tackles
5
78.486/2969
WRDameon Crowe
4 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
74.8131/2069
Availability reports · 3
  • Cole Snodgrass · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Snodgrass is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up against the San Diego State on Saturday.

  • Kylen Evans · WRQues. · 2026-09-27

    vans is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will face San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.

  • Jordan Sample · LBQues. · 2026-09-27

    Sample is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.

Oregon State
QBBraden Atkinson
1827 yds · 16 TD · 2 INT
84.947/729
WRJesse Legree
28 rec · 741 yds · 9 TD
89.68/2069
TELandon Cook
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
59.9
Penalties
0
80.723/1017
LBTakari Hickle
27 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.6
Coverage
60.5
Pressures
17
Pass-rush snaps
116
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
1
77.2135/1796
LBKord Shaw
20 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.9
Coverage
71.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
6
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
75.3174/1796
RBAJ Newberry
271 yds · 2 TD · 6.0 YPC
73.9195/1044
Position units

Position-unit comparison

TXST
ORST
vs
Offense
82.4
#50 of 138
QB
84.9
#41 of 138
78.2
#46 of 138
RB
70.9
#113 of 138
77.4
#21 of 138
WR
72.0
#60 of 138
64.5
#94 of 138
TE
80.7
#23 of 138
69.2
#61 of 138
OL
72.6
#30 of 138
Defense
81.3
#12 of 138
DL
65.1
#136 of 138
75.1
#58 of 138
LB
75.6
#56 of 138
71.2
#81 of 138
DB
66.9
#126 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Texas State
opponent
Oregon State
A-2.0
SDSU#104
+52.0H
H+8.7
CSU#118
+30.0A
H-0.9
FRES#69
-9.1A
H+4.7
USU#97
+1.8H
A-13.1
BOIS#29
-16.0A
H+4.4
WSU#101
+1.6H