AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#62Away
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
31p
#59Home
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
31p
UTSA 49%51% TXST
Spread
TXST -0.4
Total
62
Moneyline
UTSA+104TXST-104
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTSA advantageevenTXST advantage →
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
UTSA +21
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44
even
TXST throw
TXST +42
TXST run
TXST line #18TXST backs #97
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TXST throws
Beau Sparks
vs
Joel Rogers
X · TXST
CB1 · UTSA
80.3
76.0
TXST +4
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Jaylen Early
vs
Eddy Smith
LT · TXST
EDGE · UTSA
91.1
62.9
TXST +28
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Ryan Nolan
X · UTSA
CB1 · TXST
72.9
65.1
UTSA +8
when TXST runs
Jaylen Jenkins
vs
Camron Cooper
RB · TXST
MLB · UTSA
53.2
81.6
UTSA +28
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
Terrence Cooks II
RB · UTSA
MLB · TXST
74.5
60.0
UTSA +15
off the edge· hunting McCown
Jonah Miller
vs
DonTerry Russell
LT · UTSA
EDGE · TXST
48.7
83.6
TXST +35

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308
Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UTSA
opponent
Texas State
away-22.0
Texas#9
-32.4away
home+7.2
North Texas#80
+5.0home
home+19.3
Colorado State#129
+17.1home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTXST +0.495% interval: -23.5 to 24.380% interval: -17 to 17.8-17+18UTSA wins 49%TXST wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TXST 32–32 UTSATXST 28–56 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 32–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 35–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTXST 39–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 42–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 46–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 49–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTXST 53–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 56–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 25–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 28–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 32–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 35–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 39–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 42–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 46–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTXST 49–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 53–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 21–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 25–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 28–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 32–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTXST 35–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTXST 39–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTXST 42–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 46–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 49–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 18–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 21–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 25–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 28–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 32–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTXST 35–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 39–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 42–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 46–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 14–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 18–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 21–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 25–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTXST 28–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTXST 32–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTXST 35–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 39–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 42–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 11–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 14–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 18–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 21–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTXST 25–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTXST 28–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 32–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 35–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 39–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 7–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 11–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 14–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 18–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 21–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 25–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 28–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTXST 32–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 35–7 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalUTSA +28UTSA +14PKTXST +14TXST +28margin →