CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
USU 37.6%62.4% TXST
Projected margin
TXST by 4.7
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
USU 14 to TXST 23
Win probability
TXST 62.4%

Current team profiles

Utah State
Texas State

When Utah State has the ball

Passing

TXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
USU offense
#133
TXST defense
#113
EPA comparison
-0.10
#133
0.32
#113
Pass EPA

Rushing

TXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
USU offense
#122
TXST defense
#34
EPA comparison
-0.05
#122
-0.04
#34
Rush EPA

Drive success

TXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
USU offense
#131
TXST defense
#112
Success rates
35%
#131
45%
#112
Success rate
More metrics
-0.08
#132
0.11
#90
EPA / play
1.39
#8
1.20
#65
Explosiveness
19%
#130
15%
#90
Havoc

When Texas State has the ball

Passing

TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
USU defense
#60
TXST offense
#14
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
0.48
#14
Pass EPA

Rushing

USU defense
Higher-ranked profile
USU defense
#40
TXST offense
#63
EPA comparison
-0.02
#40
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
USU defense
#60
TXST offense
#23
Success rates
39%
#60
49%
#23
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#59
0.24
#30
EPA / play
1.18
#46
1.27
#43
Explosiveness
14%
#101
14%
#49
Havoc

Current key players

Utah State
QBGrady Brosterhous
764 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
49.1374/729
LBAsher Cunningham
34 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.8
Coverage
74.0
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
38
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
1
83.455/1796
WREli Wood
30 rec · 388 yds · 4 TD
80.552/2069
SBrevin Hamblin
42 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.2
Coverage
65.8
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
140
Passer rating allowed
71.5
Missed tackles
10
74.9198/2969
LBAdonis Jackson
14 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.2
Coverage
53.6
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
99
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
72.9263/1796
CBD'Angelo Mayes
23 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.3
Coverage
71.6
Targets allowed
30
Rec allowed
17
Yards allowed
226
Passer rating allowed
77.9
Missed tackles
2
70.2435/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • J. Nelson · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Nelson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Nikko Boncore · WRout · 2026-10-07

    Boncore is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Sesi Vailahi · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Vailahi is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be available against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nehemiah Washington · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Anthony Garcia · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Garcia is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Rex Haynes · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Haynes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Kache Kaio · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Kaio is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • McCae Hillstead · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hillstead is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will be suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
1226 yds · 13 TD · 5 INT
82.459/729
WRLa'Keyleon Graves
1 rec · 49 yds · 1 TD
83.928/2069
LBAyden Jones
31 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.2
Coverage
74.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
1
80.181/1796
RBJuntavious Harris
80 yds · 1 TD · 8.9 YPC
78.5101/1044
DBRyan Nolan
29 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.8
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
131
Passer rating allowed
102.8
Missed tackles
5
78.486/2969
WRDameon Crowe
4 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
74.8131/2069
Availability reports · 3
  • Cole Snodgrass · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Snodgrass is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up against the San Diego State on Saturday.

  • Kylen Evans · WRQues. · 2026-09-27

    vans is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will face San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.

  • Jordan Sample · LBQues. · 2026-09-27

    Sample is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

USU
TXST
vs
Offense
49.1
#138 of 138
QB
82.4
#50 of 138
68.3
#127 of 138
RB
78.2
#46 of 138
67.2
#118 of 138
WR
77.4
#21 of 138
59.9
#123 of 138
TE
64.5
#94 of 138
62.6
#119 of 138
OL
69.2
#61 of 138
Defense
68.5
#120 of 138
DL
81.3
#12 of 138
76.3
#50 of 138
LB
75.1
#58 of 138
69.5
#104 of 138
DB
71.2
#81 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Utah State
opponent
Texas State
A-19.0
BOIS#29
-13.1A
A-7.6
SDSU#104
-2.0A
H+1.0
WSU#101
+4.4H
H-2.9
FRES#69
-0.9H
A-1.8
ORST#44
+0.2A
H+6.7
CSU#118
+8.7H