AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 11:30 PM
#92Away
Utah State
0-0 · AVR 42.3
27p
#59Home
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
36p
USU 28%72% TXST
Spread
TXST -8.7
Total
62
Moneyline
USU+257TXST-257
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USU advantageevenTXST advantage →
USU throw
USU protection #88
USU +13
USU run
even
TXST throw
TXST +44
TXST run
TXST line #18TXST backs #97
TXST +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Jaylen Early
vs
Tyree Morris
LT · TXST
EDGE · USU
91.1
61.9
TXST +29
when TXST throws
Beau Sparks
vs
Chika Ebunoha
X · TXST
CB1 · USU
80.3
71.6
TXST +9
when USU runs
Javen Jacobs
vs
Terrence Cooks II
RB · USU
MLB · TXST
71.1
60.0
USU +11
over the middle
Blake Smith
vs
Bryson Taylor
TE · TXST
FS · USU
64.1
62.4
dead even
off the edge· hunting Barnes
Elia Migao
vs
DonTerry Russell
LT · USU
EDGE · TXST
41.1
83.6
TXST +42
when TXST runs
Jaylen Jenkins
vs
John Miller
RB · TXST
MLB · USU
53.2
66.6
USU +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah State
QBBryson Barnes
71.737/308
SChika Ebunoha
71.6199/1427
RBJaven Jacobs
71.147/514
LBJohn Miller
66.6192/878
SIke Larsen
66.6317/1427
LBBronson Olevao Jr.
65.1210/878
Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Utah State
opponent
Texas State
home+0.5
Fresno State#87
+6.8home
home+10.9
Colorado State#129
+17.1home
away-9.0
Boise State#60
-2.8away
away-8.4
San Diego State#64
-2.2away
away+5.2
Oregon State#122
+11.4away
home+0.4
Washington State#85
+6.6home

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTXST +8.795% interval: -15.2 to 32.680% interval: -8.7 to 26.1-9+26USU wins 28%TXST wins 72%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TXST 35–28 USUTXST 32–53 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 35–49 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 39–46 USU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 42–42 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 46–39 USU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 49–35 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 53–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTXST 56–28 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 60–25 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 28–49 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 32–46 USU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 35–42 USU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTXST 39–39 USU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 42–35 USU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 46–32 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 49–28 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 53–25 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 56–21 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 25–46 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 28–42 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 32–39 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 35–35 USU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 39–32 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTXST 42–28 USU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 46–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 49–21 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTXST 53–18 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 21–42 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 25–39 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 28–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 32–32 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTXST 35–28 USU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTXST 39–25 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTXST 42–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 46–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 49–14 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 18–39 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 21–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 25–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 28–28 USU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 32–25 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTXST 35–21 USU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 39–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 42–14 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 46–11 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 14–35 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 18–32 USU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 21–28 USU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 25–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 28–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTXST 32–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 35–14 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 39–11 USU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 42–7 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 11–32 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 14–28 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 18–25 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTXST 21–21 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 25–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 28–14 USU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 32–11 USU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 35–7 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 39–4 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalUSU +21USU +7TXST +7TXST +21TXST +35margin →