AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 10:00 PM
Away
Incarnate Word
—
17p
#59Home
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
43p
UIW 3%97% TXST
Spread
TXST -26.2
Total
60
Moneyline
UIW+3025TXST-3025
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878

Projected margin

80% between 9 and 43
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTXST +26.295% interval: 3.2 to 49.180% interval: 9.4 to 42.9+9+43UIW wins 3%TXST wins 97%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TXST 46–18 UIWTXST 42–42 UIW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 46–39 UIW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTXST 49–35 UIW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 53–32 UIW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 56–28 UIW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 60–25 UIW neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 63–21 UIW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 67–18 UIW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 70–14 UIW neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTXST 39–39 UIW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 42–35 UIW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 46–32 UIW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTXST 49–28 UIW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTXST 53–25 UIW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 56–21 UIW neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 60–18 UIW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 63–14 UIW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 67–11 UIW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 35–35 UIW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 39–32 UIW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTXST 42–28 UIW neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 46–25 UIW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 49–21 UIW neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTXST 53–18 UIW neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 56–14 UIW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTXST 60–11 UIW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 63–7 UIW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 32–32 UIW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 35–28 UIW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 39–25 UIW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 42–21 UIW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTXST 46–18 UIW neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTXST 49–14 UIW neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTXST 53–11 UIW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 56–7 UIW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 60–4 UIW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 28–28 UIW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 32–25 UIW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTXST 35–21 UIW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 39–18 UIW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTXST 42–14 UIW neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTXST 46–11 UIW neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTXST 49–7 UIW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 53–4 UIW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 56–0 UIW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 25–25 UIW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTXST 28–21 UIW neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 32–18 UIW neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 35–14 UIW neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTXST 39–11 UIW neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTXST 42–7 UIW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 46–4 UIW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTXST 49–0 UIW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TXST 21–21 UIW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 25–18 UIW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 28–14 UIW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTXST 32–11 UIW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTXST 35–7 UIW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTXST 39–4 UIW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 42–0 UIW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)84777063564942totalPKTXST +14TXST +28TXST +42TXST +56margin →