Passing
No comparison
- UIW offense
- —
- TXST defense
- #113
EPA comparison
—
0.32
#113
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UIW 2.7%97.3% TXST
- Projected margin
- TXST by 33.1
- Projected total
- 66
- 80% outcome range
- TXST 11 to TXST 56
- Win probability
- TXST 97.3%
FinalUIW 10 · TXST 63model had +33.1, off by 19.9
Current team profiles
Incarnate Word
Texas StateWhen Incarnate Word has the ball
Rushing
No comparison
- UIW offense
- —
- TXST defense
- #34
EPA comparison
—
-0.04
#34
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- UIW offense
- #21
- TXST defense
- #112
Success rates
47%
#21
45%
#112
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#68
0.11
#90
EPA / play
0.20
#79
1.20
#65
Explosiveness
—
15%
#90
Havoc
When Texas State has the ball
Passing
No comparison
- UIW defense
- —
- TXST offense
- #14
EPA comparison
—
0.48
#14
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
- UIW defense
- —
- TXST offense
- #63
EPA comparison
—
0.12
#63
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- UIW defense
- #23
- TXST offense
- #23
Success rates
41%
#23
49%
#23
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#52
0.24
#30
EPA / play
0.20
#46
1.27
#43
Explosiveness
—
14%
#49
Havoc
Current key players
Incarnate WordLBBraden Hay
6 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 72.0
- Coverage
- 69.6
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 1
85.215/1054
DLJeremiah Young
25 tkl · 6.5 TFL · 4.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 83.2
- Pressures
- 13
- Pass-rush snaps
- 107
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
84.715/1549
LBChristian Barney
47 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.4
- Coverage
- 80.2
- Pressures
- 6
- Pass-rush snaps
- 20
- Missed tackles
- 5
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.020/1054
DLCurtis Hood
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
82.424/1549
LBJordan Norwood
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.3
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
81.930/1054
DLWalt Gray
8 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.5
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 63
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 1
78.065/1549
Texas StateQBBrad Jackson
1226 yds · 13 TD · 5 INT
82.459/729
WRLa'Keyleon Graves
1 rec · 49 yds · 1 TD
83.928/2069
LBAyden Jones
31 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.2
- Coverage
- 74.7
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 14
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.181/1796
RBJuntavious Harris
80 yds · 1 TD · 8.9 YPC
78.5101/1044
DBRyan Nolan
29 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 65.8
- Coverage
- 80.3
- Targets allowed
- 17
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 131
- Passer rating allowed
- 102.8
- Missed tackles
- 5
78.486/2969
WRDameon Crowe
4 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
74.8131/2069
Availability reports · 3
- Cole Snodgrass · TEout · 2026-10-01
Snodgrass is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up against the San Diego State on Saturday.
- Kylen Evans · WRQues. · 2026-09-27
vans is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will face San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.
- Jordan Sample · LBQues. · 2026-09-27
Sample is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
UIWIncarnate Word
TXSTTexas State
vs
Offense
68.6
#77 of 125
QB
Quarterback
82.4
#50 of 138
71.0
#66 of 126
RB
Running backs
78.2
#46 of 138
72.6
#27 of 126
WR
Receivers
77.4
#21 of 138
68.6
#38 of 124
TE
Tight ends
64.5
#94 of 138
68.3
#31 of 125
OL
Offensive line
69.2
#61 of 138
Defense
79.5
#5 of 126
DL
Defensive line
81.3
#12 of 138
83.7
#1 of 126
LB
Linebackers
75.1
#58 of 138
74.5
#24 of 126
DB
Secondary
71.2
#81 of 138