AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#40Away
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
19p
#9Home
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
37p
ARK 11%89% TEX
Spread
TEX -18.0
Total
56
Moneyline
ARK+812TEX-812
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARK advantageevenTEX advantage →
ARK throw
TEX +22
ARK run
TEX +32
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
TEX +21
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
TEX +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Steven Soles Jr.
LT · TEX
EDGE · ARK
79.9
85.2
ARK +5
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · ARK
MLB · TEX
68.8
93.7
TEX +25
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · TEX
MLB · ARK
82.9
77.0
TEX +6
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Bryant Williams
vs
Colin Simmons
LT · ARK
EDGE · TEX
45.4
105.6
TEX +60
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Joker Johnson
X · TEX
CB1 · ARK
76.6
70.0
TEX +7
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
Jordon Johnson-Rubell
TE · ARK
FS · TEX
78.6
61.5
ARK +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arkansas
opponent
Texas
away-19.0
Texas A&M#8
-3.5away
home-8.8
Tennessee#17
+1.7away
home-4.5
Missouri#24
+6.0away
home-4.8
LSU#20
+5.7away

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEX +18.095% interval: -5.9 to 41.980% interval: 0.6 to 35.4+1+35ARK wins 11%TEX wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEX 39–18 ARKTEX 35–42 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 39–39 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 42–35 ARK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 46–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 49–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 53–25 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 56–21 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 60–18 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 63–14 ARK neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTEX 32–39 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 35–35 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 39–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 42–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEX 46–25 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEX 49–21 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 53–18 ARK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 56–14 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 60–11 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 28–35 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 32–32 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 35–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 39–25 ARK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEX 42–21 ARK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 46–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 49–14 ARK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 53–11 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 56–7 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 25–32 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 28–28 ARK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 32–25 ARK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 35–21 ARK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEX 39–18 ARK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEX 42–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEX 46–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 49–7 ARK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 53–4 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 21–28 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 25–25 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 28–21 ARK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 32–18 ARK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 35–14 ARK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 39–11 ARK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 42–7 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 46–4 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 49–0 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 18–25 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 21–21 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 25–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 28–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEX 32–11 ARK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 35–7 ARK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 39–4 ARK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 42–0 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TEX 14–21 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 18–18 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 21–14 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 25–11 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 28–7 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 32–4 ARK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 35–0 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalARK +7TEX +7TEX +21TEX +35TEX +49margin →