AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#9Away
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
27p
#20Home
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
21p
TEX 65%35% LSU
Spread
TEX -5.7
Total
48
Moneyline
TEX-188LSU+188
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TEX advantageevenLSU advantage →
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
LSU +13
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
LSU +16
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
TEX +15
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
TEX +57

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Princewill Umanmielen
LT · TEX
EDGE · LSU
79.9
99.9
LSU +20
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
DJ Pickett
X · TEX
CB1 · LSU
76.6
93.7
LSU +17
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · LSU
CB1 · TEX
86.3
81.4
LSU +5
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · LSU
MLB · TEX
61.0
93.7
TEX +33
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
TJ Dottery
RB · TEX
MLB · LSU
82.9
69.2
TEX +14
off the edge· hunting Leavitt
Aliou Bah
vs
Colin Simmons
LT · LSU
EDGE · TEX
35.8
105.6
TEX +70

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas
opponent
LSU
home+5.9
Ole Miss#14
-7.4away
home+18.0
Arkansas#40
+4.8away
away+1.7
Tennessee#17
-6.5away
home+18.5
Mississippi State#45
+10.3home
away-3.5
Texas A&M#8
-6.7home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEX +5.795% interval: -29.6 to 18.280% interval: -23.1 to 11.7-23+12TEX wins 65%LSU wins 35%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEX 28–21 LSULSU 18–53 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 21–49 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 25–46 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 28–42 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLSU 32–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLSU 35–35 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 39–32 TEX neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLSU 42–28 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 46–25 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 14–49 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 18–46 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 21–42 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 25–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 28–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLSU 32–32 TEX neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLSU 35–28 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLSU 39–25 TEX neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLSU 42–21 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 11–46 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 14–42 TEX neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLSU 18–39 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLSU 21–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLSU 25–32 TEX neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLSU 28–28 TEX neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 32–25 TEX neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLSU 35–21 TEX neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 39–18 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 7–42 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 11–39 TEX neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLSU 14–35 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 18–32 TEX neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 21–28 TEX neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLSU 25–25 TEX neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLSU 28–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 32–18 TEX neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLSU 35–14 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 4–39 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 7–35 TEX neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLSU 11–32 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 14–28 TEX neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLSU 18–25 TEX neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 21–21 TEX neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 25–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLSU 28–14 TEX neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 32–11 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 0–35 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 4–32 TEX neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 7–28 TEX neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLSU 11–25 TEX neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLSU 14–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 18–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLSU 21–14 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 25–11 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 28–7 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)LSU 0–28 TEX neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 4–25 TEX neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 7–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 11–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 14–14 TEX neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLSU 18–11 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 21–7 TEX neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 25–4 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalTEX +35TEX +21TEX +7LSU +7LSU +21margin →