AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 7:30 PM · neutral site
Golden Hat
#9Away
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
25p
#11Home
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
22p
TEX 59%41% OU
Spread
TEX -3.5
Total
47
Moneyline
TEX-142OU+142
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TEX advantageevenOU advantage →
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
OU +14
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
OU +35
OU throw
even
OU run
TEX +28

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Colin Simmons
LT · OU
EDGE · TEX
74.3
105.6
TEX +31
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Taylor Wein
LT · TEX
EDGE · OU
79.9
96.5
OU +17
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · TEX
MLB · OU
82.9
92.3
OU +9
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · TEX
CB1 · OU
76.6
86.1
OU +9
when OU runs
Lloyd Avant
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · OU
MLB · TEX
62.3
93.7
TEX +31
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · OU
CB1 · TEX
71.1
81.4
TEX +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas
opponent
Oklahoma
home+11.2
Florida#25
+2.6away
home+18.5
Mississippi State#45
+10.0away
home+5.9
Ole Miss#14
+2.3home
away+6.0
Missouri#24
+2.5away
away-3.5
Texas A&M#8
-2.0home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEX +3.595% interval: -27.4 to 20.480% interval: -20.9 to 13.9-21+14TEX wins 59%OU wins 41%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEX 28–21 OUOU 21–49 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 25–46 TEX neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 28–42 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 32–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 35–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 39–32 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 42–28 TEX neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 46–25 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 49–21 TEX neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOU 18–46 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 21–42 TEX neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 25–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 28–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 32–32 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 35–28 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 39–25 TEX neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 42–21 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 46–18 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 14–42 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 18–39 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOU 21–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 25–32 TEX neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 28–28 TEX neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 32–25 TEX neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 35–21 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOU 39–18 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 42–14 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 11–39 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 14–35 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 18–32 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 21–28 TEX neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOU 25–25 TEX neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOU 28–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 32–18 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 35–14 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 39–11 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 7–35 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 11–32 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 14–28 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 18–25 TEX neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOU 21–21 TEX neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOU 25–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 28–14 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 32–11 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 35–7 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 4–32 TEX neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 7–28 TEX neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 11–25 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 14–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 18–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 21–14 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 25–11 TEX neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 28–7 TEX neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 32–4 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 0–28 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 4–25 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOU 7–21 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 11–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 14–14 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 18–11 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 21–7 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOU 25–4 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 28–0 TEX neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalTEX +28TEX +14PKOU +14OU +28margin →