AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#25Away
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
19p
#9Home
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
30p
FLA 22%78% TEX
Spread
TEX -11.2
Total
48
Moneyline
FLA+354TEX-354
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FLA advantageevenTEX advantage →
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
TEX +28
FLA run
even
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
TEX +14
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
FLA +25

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · FLA
MLB · TEX
80.9
93.7
TEX +13
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Emmanuel Oyebadejo
LT · TEX
EDGE · FLA
79.9
90.7
FLA +11
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Myles Graham
RB · TEX
MLB · FLA
82.9
86.1
FLA +3
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · FLA
CB1 · TEX
71.4
81.4
TEX +10
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · TEX
CB1 · FLA
76.6
72.0
TEX +5
over the middle
Lacota Dippre
vs
Jordon Johnson-Rubell
TE · FLA
FS · TEX
73.7
61.5
FLA +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida
opponent
Texas
home-2.8
Ole Miss#14
+5.9home
away-2.7
Missouri#24
+6.0away
home-2.6
Oklahoma#11
+3.5neutral

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEX +11.295% interval: -12.7 to 35.180% interval: -6.2 to 28.6-6+29FLA wins 22%TEX wins 78%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEX 32–18 FLATEX 28–42 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 32–39 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 35–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 39–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 42–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 46–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 49–21 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 53–18 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 56–14 FLA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTEX 25–39 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 28–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 32–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 35–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 39–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEX 42–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 46–18 FLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 49–14 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 53–11 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 21–35 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 25–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 28–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 32–25 FLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEX 35–21 FLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 39–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 42–14 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 46–11 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 49–7 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 18–32 FLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 21–28 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 25–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 28–21 FLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEX 32–18 FLA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEX 35–14 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEX 39–11 FLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 42–7 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 46–4 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 14–28 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 18–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 21–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 25–18 FLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 28–14 FLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 32–11 FLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 35–7 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 39–4 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 42–0 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 11–25 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 14–21 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 18–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 21–14 FLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 25–11 FLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 28–7 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 32–4 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 35–0 FLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TEX 7–21 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 11–18 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 14–14 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 18–11 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 21–7 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 25–4 FLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 28–0 FLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalFLA +14PKTEX +14TEX +28TEX +42margin →