Passing
TEX defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UTSA offense
- #78
- TEX defense
- #20
EPA comparison
0.19
#78
0.00
#20
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UTSA 1.5%98.5% TEX
- Projected margin
- TEX by 33.1
- Projected total
- 55
- 80% outcome range
- TEX 11 to TEX 56
- Win probability
- TEX 98.5%
FinalUTSA 6 · TEX 30model had +33.1, off by 9.1
Current team profiles
UTSATexasWhen UTSA has the ball
Rushing
UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UTSA offense
- #12
- TEX defense
- #22
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
-0.09
#22
Rush EPA
Drive success
TEX defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UTSA offense
- #38
- TEX defense
- #25
Success rates
47%
#38
35%
#25
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#34
-0.05
#23
EPA / play
1.14
#114
1.04
#7
Explosiveness
12%
#27
21%
#10
Havoc
When Texas has the ball
Passing
Same rank
- UTSA defense
- #60
- TEX offense
- #60
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
0.26
#60
Pass EPA
Rushing
Same rank
- UTSA defense
- #93
- TEX offense
- #93
EPA comparison
0.10
#93
0.04
#93
Rush EPA
Drive success
TEX offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UTSA defense
- #80
- TEX offense
- #69
Success rates
41%
#80
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#68
0.08
#96
EPA / play
1.15
#34
1.18
#97
Explosiveness
13%
#119
17%
#110
Havoc
Current key players
UTSAQBMark Wiepert
— yds · — TD · — INT
68.6178/729
RBA'Marion Peterson
194 yds · 4 TD · 7.2 YPC
89.212/1044
LBCamron Cooper
14 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.6
- Coverage
- 72.1
- Pressures
- 7
- Pass-rush snaps
- 92
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
77.5127/1796
CBZach Morris
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.9
- Coverage
- 75.4
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 65
- Passer rating allowed
- 48.8
- Missed tackles
- 1
76.4146/2969
WRDJ Allen Jr.
18 rec · 269 yds · 2 TD
76.0109/2069
LBBrandon Tucker
44 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.3
- Coverage
- 57.1
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 16
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
73.2252/1796
Availability reports · 1
- Bryson Donnell · RBout · 2026-10-10
Donnell has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.
TexasQBArch Manning
865 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT
74.8113/729
WRSterling Berkhalter
3 rec · 34 yds · 0 TD
83.729/2069
DBJelani McDonald
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.2
- Coverage
- 73.5
- Targets allowed
- 11
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 56
- Passer rating allowed
- 118.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
76.3149/2969
RBHollywood Smothers
198 yds · 2 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.1147/1044
DBGraceson Littleton
14 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.1
- Coverage
- 75.0
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 59.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
76.0161/2969
WRCam Coleman
11 rec · 194 yds · 4 TD
70.5246/2069
Availability reports · 4
- Trevor Goosby · OGQues. · 2026-10-11
Goosby is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
- Zion Williams · DLQues. · 2026-10-11
Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
- Kaliq Lockett · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Lockett is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
- Daylan McCutcheon · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
McCutcheon is ailing from an illness, and it is unclear if he will play against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
UTSAUTSA
TEXTexas
vs
Offense
68.6
#107 of 138
QB
Quarterback
74.8
#83 of 138
84.7
#11 of 138
RB
Running backs
74.0
#82 of 138
68.5
#100 of 138
WR
Receivers
74.5
#37 of 138
64.0
#96 of 138
TE
Tight ends
63.2
#103 of 138
65.0
#95 of 138
OL
Offensive line
76.6
#10 of 138
Defense
69.5
#113 of 138
DL
Defensive line
77.9
#24 of 138
73.9
#71 of 138
LB
Linebackers
66.3
#127 of 138
70.1
#97 of 138
DB
Secondary
70.6
#89 of 138