AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sun Sep 20
#62Away
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
16p
#9Home
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
38p
UTSA 6%94% TEX
Spread
TEX -22.0
Total
54
Moneyline
UTSA+1534TEX-1534
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTSA advantageevenTEX advantage →
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
TEX +15
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44
TEX +43
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
TEX +33
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · UTSA
MLB · TEX
74.5
93.7
TEX +19
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Camron Cooper
RB · TEX
MLB · UTSA
82.9
81.6
dead even
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · UTSA
CB1 · TEX
72.9
81.4
TEX +8
off the edge· hunting McCown
Jonah Miller
vs
Colin Simmons
LT · UTSA
EDGE · TEX
48.7
105.6
TEX +57
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Joel Rogers
X · TEX
CB1 · UTSA
76.6
76.0
dead even
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Eddy Smith
LT · TEX
EDGE · UTSA
79.9
62.9
TEX +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308
Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Projected margin

80% between 5 and 39
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEX +22.095% interval: -1.9 to 45.980% interval: 4.6 to 39.4+5+39UTSA wins 6%TEX wins 94%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEX 39–18 UTSATEX 35–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 39–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 42–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEX 46–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 49–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 53–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEX 56–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 60–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 63–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 32–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 35–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 39–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 42–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 46–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 49–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 53–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 56–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 60–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 28–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 32–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 35–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEX 39–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEX 42–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 46–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEX 49–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 53–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEX 56–7 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 25–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 28–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 32–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 35–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEX 39–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEX 42–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEX 46–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 49–7 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 53–4 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 21–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 25–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 28–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 32–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEX 35–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEX 39–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEX 42–7 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 46–4 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 49–0 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 18–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 21–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 25–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 28–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 32–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEX 35–7 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 39–4 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 42–0 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TEX 14–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 18–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 21–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 25–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 28–7 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 32–4 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 35–0 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalUTSA +7TEX +7TEX +21TEX +35TEX +49margin →