AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#14Away
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
24p
#9Home
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
29p
MISS 34%66% TEX
Spread
TEX -5.9
Total
53
Moneyline
MISS+195TEX-195
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MISS advantageevenTEX advantage →
MISS throw
MISS protection #58
even
MISS run
MISS backs #11
TEX +20
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
even
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
MISS +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · MISS
MLB · TEX
90.1
93.7
TEX +4
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Jonathan Maldonado
LT · TEX
EDGE · MISS
79.9
92.7
MISS +13
off the edge· hunting Chambliss
Tommy Kinsler IV
vs
Colin Simmons
LT · MISS
EDGE · TEX
65.2
105.6
TEX +40
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · TEX
MLB · MISS
82.9
78.6
TEX +4
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Antonio Kite
X · TEX
CB1 · MISS
76.6
78.2
dead even
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · MISS
CB1 · TEX
68.4
81.4
TEX +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777
Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ole Miss
opponent
Texas
away+2.8
Florida#25
+11.2home
away-2.3
Oklahoma#11
+3.5neutral
home+15.1
Mississippi State#45
+18.5home
home+7.4
LSU#20
+5.7away
home+7.6
Missouri#24
+6.0away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEX +5.995% interval: -18 to 29.880% interval: -11.5 to 23.2-11+23MISS wins 34%TEX wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEX 32–25 MISSTEX 28–49 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 32–46 MISS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 35–42 MISS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 39–39 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 42–35 MISS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEX 46–32 MISS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 49–28 MISS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 53–25 MISS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 56–21 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 25–46 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 28–42 MISS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 32–39 MISS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 35–35 MISS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 39–32 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 42–28 MISS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 46–25 MISS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 49–21 MISS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 53–18 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 21–42 MISS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 25–39 MISS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEX 28–35 MISS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 32–32 MISS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 35–28 MISS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEX 39–25 MISS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 42–21 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 46–18 MISS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 49–14 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 18–39 MISS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 21–35 MISS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 25–32 MISS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 28–28 MISS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEX 32–25 MISS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEX 35–21 MISS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEX 39–18 MISS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 42–14 MISS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 46–11 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 14–35 MISS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 18–32 MISS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 21–28 MISS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 25–25 MISS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEX 28–21 MISS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEX 32–18 MISS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEX 35–14 MISS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 39–11 MISS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 42–7 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 11–32 MISS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 14–28 MISS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEX 18–25 MISS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 21–21 MISS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 25–18 MISS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEX 28–14 MISS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 32–11 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 35–7 MISS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 39–4 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 7–28 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 11–25 MISS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 14–21 MISS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 18–18 MISS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 21–14 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 25–11 MISS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 28–7 MISS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 32–4 MISS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 35–0 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMISS +21MISS +7TEX +7TEX +21TEX +35margin →