Passing
MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSST offense
- #19
- TEX defense
- #20
EPA comparison
0.43
#19
0.00
#20
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
MSST 20.3%79.8% TEX
- Projected margin
- TEX by 13.0
- Projected total
- 54
- 80% outcome range
- MSST 6 to TEX 32
- Win probability
- TEX 79.8%
Current team profiles
Mississippi State
TexasWhen Mississippi State has the ball
Rushing
TEX defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSST offense
- #30
- TEX defense
- #22
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
-0.09
#22
Rush EPA
Drive success
TEX defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSST offense
- #29
- TEX defense
- #25
Success rates
48%
#29
35%
#25
Success rate
More metrics
0.28
#24
-0.05
#23
EPA / play
1.32
#27
1.04
#7
Explosiveness
14%
#63
21%
#10
Havoc
When Texas has the ball
Passing
TEX offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSST defense
- #75
- TEX offense
- #60
EPA comparison
0.16
#75
0.26
#60
Pass EPA
Rushing
MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSST defense
- #73
- TEX offense
- #93
EPA comparison
0.05
#73
0.04
#93
Rush EPA
Drive success
TEX offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSST defense
- #78
- TEX offense
- #69
Success rates
41%
#78
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#88
0.08
#96
EPA / play
1.16
#40
1.18
#97
Explosiveness
17%
#43
17%
#110
Havoc
Current key players
Mississippi StateQBKamario Taylor
1450 yds · 17 TD · 4 INT
73.0130/729
RBJ.J. Hill
124 yds · 2 TD · 12.4 YPC
90.09/1044
CBJett Jefferson
25 tkl · 8 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.9
- Coverage
- 83.8
- Targets allowed
- 31
- Rec allowed
- 15
- Yards allowed
- 164
- Passer rating allowed
- 96.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
85.124/2969
WRAnthony Evans III
40 rec · 574 yds · 5 TD
82.834/2069
SJardin Gilbert
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 158.3
- Missed tackles
- 2
77.8100/2969
SIsaac Smith
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.3
- Coverage
- 76.8
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 24
- Passer rating allowed
- 66.7
- Missed tackles
- 3
75.6171/2969
Availability reports · 4
- A. Williams · WRout · 2026-10-01
Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play Saturday against the Alabama.
- Trevion Williams · DLout · 2026-09-26
Williams is sidelined due to Leg injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Bull Mitchell · WRout · 2026-09-20
Mitchell is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
- Jamari Freeman · OGQues. · 2026-10-03
Freeman is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against LSU on Saturday, October 10th.
TexasQBArch Manning
865 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT
74.8113/729
WRSterling Berkhalter
3 rec · 34 yds · 0 TD
83.729/2069
DBJelani McDonald
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.2
- Coverage
- 73.5
- Targets allowed
- 11
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 56
- Passer rating allowed
- 118.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
76.3149/2969
RBHollywood Smothers
198 yds · 2 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.1147/1044
DBGraceson Littleton
14 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.1
- Coverage
- 75.0
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 59.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
76.0161/2969
WRCam Coleman
11 rec · 194 yds · 4 TD
70.5246/2069
Availability reports · 4
- Trevor Goosby · OGQues. · 2026-10-11
Goosby is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
- Zion Williams · DLQues. · 2026-10-11
Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
- Kaliq Lockett · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Lockett is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
- Daylan McCutcheon · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
McCutcheon is ailing from an illness, and it is unclear if he will play against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
MSSTMississippi State
TEXTexas
vs
Offense
73.0
#89 of 138
QB
Quarterback
74.8
#83 of 138
89.0
#3 of 138
RB
Running backs
74.0
#82 of 138
75.4
#32 of 138
WR
Receivers
74.5
#37 of 138
64.6
#92 of 138
TE
Tight ends
63.2
#103 of 138
63.3
#113 of 138
OL
Offensive line
76.6
#10 of 138
Defense
73.2
#66 of 138
DL
Defensive line
77.9
#24 of 138
66.7
#126 of 138
LB
Linebackers
66.3
#127 of 138
76.3
#22 of 138
DB
Secondary
70.6
#89 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Mississippi State
opponent
Texas
Aaway-7.6
MISSOle Miss#14+8.0Hhome
Aaway-10.0
LSULSU#11+0.4Aaway
Hhome+7.0
MIZMissouri#15+2.6Aaway
Hhome-2.6
OUOklahoma#19-3.0Nneutral