AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#45Away
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
16p
#9Home
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
35p
MSST 10%90% TEX
Spread
TEX -18.5
Total
51
Moneyline
MSST+862TEX-862
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MSST advantageevenTEX advantage →
MSST throw
MSST protection #89
TEX +16
MSST run
TEX +47
TEX throw
TEX protection #84MSST pass rush #115
TEX +31
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
TEX +35

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · MSST
MLB · TEX
71.0
93.7
TEX +23
off the edge· hunting Taylor
Canon Boone
vs
Colin Simmons
LT · MSST
EDGE · TEX
51.3
105.6
TEX +54
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Kelley Jones
X · TEX
CB1 · MSST
76.6
75.5
dead even
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Gav Holman
RB · TEX
MLB · MSST
82.9
62.8
TEX +20
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · MSST
CB1 · TEX
64.0
81.4
TEX +17
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Gus Cordova
LT · TEX
EDGE · MSST
79.9
59.1
TEX +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777
Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Mississippi State
opponent
Texas
away-15.1
Ole Miss#14
+5.9home
away-10.3
LSU#20
+5.7away
home-10.0
Oklahoma#11
+3.5neutral
home-5.0
Missouri#24
+6.0away

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 36
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEX +18.595% interval: -5.4 to 42.480% interval: 1.1 to 35.9+1+36MSST wins 10%TEX wins 90%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEX 35–14 MSSTTEX 32–39 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 35–35 MSST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 39–32 MSST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 42–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 46–25 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 49–21 MSST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 53–18 MSST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 56–14 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 60–11 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 28–35 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 32–32 MSST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 35–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 39–25 MSST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEX 42–21 MSST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEX 46–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 49–14 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 53–11 MSST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 56–7 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 25–32 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 28–28 MSST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 32–25 MSST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 35–21 MSST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 39–18 MSST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEX 42–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 46–11 MSST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 49–7 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 53–4 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 21–28 MSST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 25–25 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 28–21 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 32–18 MSST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEX 35–14 MSST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEX 39–11 MSST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 42–7 MSST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 46–4 MSST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 49–0 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 18–25 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 21–21 MSST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 25–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 28–14 MSST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEX 32–11 MSST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 35–7 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 39–4 MSST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 42–0 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TEX 14–21 MSST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 18–18 MSST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEX 21–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 25–11 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 28–7 MSST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEX 32–4 MSST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 35–0 MSST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TEX 11–18 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 14–14 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 18–11 MSST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 21–7 MSST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 25–4 MSST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 28–0 MSST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalMSST +7TEX +7TEX +21TEX +35TEX +49margin →