AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#31Away
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
27p
#45Home
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
25p
AUB 53%47% MSST
Spread
AUB -1.1
Total
52
Moneyline
AUB-114MSST+114
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AUB advantageevenMSST advantage →
AUB throw
AUB protection #51MSST pass rush #115
AUB +35
AUB run
AUB +49
MSST throw
MSST protection #89AUB pass rush #18
even
MSST run
AUB +47

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · MSST
MLB · AUB
71.0
93.4
AUB +22
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
Kelley Jones
X · AUB
CB1 · MSST
86.7
75.5
AUB +11
off the edge· hunting Taylor
Canon Boone
vs
Cody Sigler
LT · MSST
EDGE · AUB
51.3
92.0
AUB +41
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
Gav Holman
RB · AUB
MLB · MSST
78.7
62.8
AUB +16
over the middle
Jonathan Echols
vs
Kendel Dolby
TE · AUB
FS · MSST
67.1
64.9
dead even
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
Fred Gaskin III
X · MSST
CB1 · AUB
64.0
66.3
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Auburn
opponent
Mississippi State
home-1.6
LSU#20
-10.3away
home-1.9
Vanderbilt#23
-5.5home
away-11.5
Ole Miss#14
-15.1away
away-12.7
Alabama#12
-11.3home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAUB +1.195% interval: -25 to 22.880% interval: -18.5 to 16.3-18+16AUB wins 53%MSST wins 47%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MSST 25–25 AUBMSST 21–49 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 25–46 AUB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 28–42 AUB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSST 32–39 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 35–35 AUB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSST 39–32 AUB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 42–28 AUB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 46–25 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 49–21 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 18–46 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 21–42 AUB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 25–39 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 28–35 AUB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 32–32 AUB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSST 35–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 39–25 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 42–21 AUB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 46–18 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 14–42 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 18–39 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSST 21–35 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 25–32 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSST 28–28 AUB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSST 32–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSST 35–21 AUB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSST 39–18 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 42–14 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 11–39 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 14–35 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSST 18–32 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 21–28 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSST 25–25 AUB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSST 28–21 AUB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSST 32–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 35–14 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 39–11 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 7–35 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 11–32 AUB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 14–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 18–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 21–21 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSST 25–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 28–14 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 32–11 AUB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 35–7 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 4–32 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 7–28 AUB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 11–25 AUB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSST 14–21 AUB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSST 18–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 21–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSST 25–11 AUB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 28–7 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 32–4 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 0–28 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 4–25 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 7–21 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSST 11–18 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 14–14 AUB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSST 18–11 AUB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSST 21–7 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 25–4 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 28–0 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalAUB +28AUB +14PKMSST +14MSST +28margin →