Passing
MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- AUB offense
- #119
- MSST defense
- #75
EPA comparison
0.04
#119
0.16
#75
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
AUB 46.8%53.2% MSST
- Projected margin
- MSST by 1.4
- Projected total
- 55
- 80% outcome range
- AUB 17 to MSST 20
- Win probability
- MSST 53.2%
Current team profiles
AuburnMississippi StateWhen Auburn has the ball
Rushing
AUB offense
Higher-ranked profile
- AUB offense
- #39
- MSST defense
- #73
EPA comparison
0.18
#39
0.05
#73
Rush EPA
Drive success
MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- AUB offense
- #86
- MSST defense
- #78
Success rates
42%
#86
41%
#78
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#98
0.09
#88
EPA / play
1.26
#55
1.16
#40
Explosiveness
16%
#102
17%
#43
Havoc
When Mississippi State has the ball
Passing
MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- AUB defense
- #41
- MSST offense
- #19
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.43
#19
Pass EPA
Rushing
MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- AUB defense
- #73
- MSST offense
- #30
EPA comparison
0.05
#73
0.20
#30
Rush EPA
Drive success
MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- AUB defense
- #50
- MSST offense
- #29
Success rates
38%
#50
48%
#29
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#44
0.28
#24
EPA / play
1.18
#45
1.32
#27
Explosiveness
17%
#57
14%
#63
Havoc
Current key players
AuburnQBByrum Brown
1052 yds · 7 TD · 7 INT
83.056/729
LBMichael Matthews-Canty
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.3
- Coverage
- 72.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.447/1796
RBOmar Mabson II
213 yds · 1 TD · 6.5 YPC
77.0133/1044
LBXavier Atkins
37 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.8
- Coverage
- 55.6
- Pressures
- 19
- Pass-rush snaps
- 57
- Missed tackles
- 10
- Forced fumbles
- 0
75.1180/1796
SSylvester Smith-Reed
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.1
- Coverage
- 72.2
- Targets allowed
- 12
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 48
- Passer rating allowed
- 32.6
- Missed tackles
- 2
72.5302/2969
WRKeshaun Singleton
29 rec · 322 yds · 1 TD
71.2220/2069
Availability reports · 2
- Nykahi Davenport · RBout · 2026-09-20
Davenport is managing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no time table for his return.
- Hunter Herring · TEQues. · 2026-09-20
Herring is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available against Commodores on Saturday, September 26th.
Mississippi StateQBKamario Taylor
1450 yds · 17 TD · 4 INT
73.0130/729
RBJ.J. Hill
124 yds · 2 TD · 12.4 YPC
90.09/1044
CBJett Jefferson
25 tkl · 8 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.9
- Coverage
- 83.8
- Targets allowed
- 31
- Rec allowed
- 15
- Yards allowed
- 164
- Passer rating allowed
- 96.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
85.124/2969
WRAnthony Evans III
40 rec · 574 yds · 5 TD
82.834/2069
SJardin Gilbert
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 158.3
- Missed tackles
- 2
77.8100/2969
SIsaac Smith
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.3
- Coverage
- 76.8
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 24
- Passer rating allowed
- 66.7
- Missed tackles
- 3
75.6171/2969
Availability reports · 4
- A. Williams · WRout · 2026-10-01
Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play Saturday against the Alabama.
- Trevion Williams · DLout · 2026-09-26
Williams is sidelined due to Leg injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Bull Mitchell · WRout · 2026-09-20
Mitchell is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
- Jamari Freeman · OGQues. · 2026-10-03
Freeman is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against LSU on Saturday, October 10th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
AUBAuburn
MSSTMississippi State
vs
Offense
83.0
#49 of 138
QB
Quarterback
73.0
#89 of 138
73.9
#83 of 138
RB
Running backs
89.0
#3 of 138
68.1
#106 of 138
WR
Receivers
75.4
#32 of 138
63.5
#100 of 138
TE
Tight ends
64.6
#92 of 138
63.8
#105 of 138
OL
Offensive line
63.3
#113 of 138
Defense
69.2
#115 of 138
DL
Defensive line
73.2
#66 of 138
78.2
#35 of 138
LB
Linebackers
66.7
#126 of 138
66.7
#131 of 138
DB
Secondary
76.3
#22 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Auburn
opponent
Mississippi State
Aaway-18.0
ALAAlabama#3-33.0Hhome
Hhome-3.4
LSULSU#11-10.0Aaway
Hhome+6.0
VANVanderbilt#58+2.1Hhome
Aaway-6.4
MISSOle Miss#14-7.6Aaway