Passing
MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- ULM offense
- #111
- MSST defense
- #75
EPA comparison
0.08
#111
0.16
#75
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ULM 7.3%92.7% MSST
- Projected margin
- MSST by 23.2
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- MSST 3 to MSST 44
- Win probability
- MSST 92.7%
FinalULM 13 · MSST 62model had +23.2, off by 25.8
Current team profiles
UL MonroeMississippi StateWhen UL Monroe has the ball
Rushing
MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- ULM offense
- #100
- MSST defense
- #73
EPA comparison
0.03
#100
0.05
#73
Rush EPA
Drive success
MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- ULM offense
- #88
- MSST defense
- #78
Success rates
42%
#88
41%
#78
Success rate
More metrics
0.00
#121
0.09
#88
EPA / play
1.16
#102
1.16
#40
Explosiveness
17%
#120
17%
#43
Havoc
When Mississippi State has the ball
Passing
MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ULM defense
- #132
- MSST offense
- #19
EPA comparison
0.45
#132
0.43
#19
Pass EPA
Rushing
MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ULM defense
- #136
- MSST offense
- #30
EPA comparison
0.27
#136
0.20
#30
Rush EPA
Drive success
MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ULM defense
- #136
- MSST offense
- #29
Success rates
51%
#136
48%
#29
Success rate
More metrics
0.32
#137
0.28
#24
EPA / play
1.24
#84
1.32
#27
Explosiveness
11%
#133
14%
#63
Havoc
Current key players
UL MonroeQBAustin Carlisle
312 yds · 3 TD · 3 INT
70.1152/729
LBBilly Pullen
8 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.8
- Coverage
- 78.7
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 55
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
74.3206/1796
RBZach Palmer-Smith
68 yds · 1 TD · 4.9 YPC
73.9197/1044
SLarell Howling
5 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.0
- Coverage
- 67.7
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
72.5308/2969
LBMarcus Ross
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.8
- Coverage
- 70.5
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 35
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 0
71.6304/1796
WRJaiden Tucker
1 rec · 52 yds · 0 TD
70.7237/2069
Availability reports · 2
- Jaydon Wright · RBout · 2026-10-03
Wright is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and he is unlikely to be available against South Alabama on Saturday, October 3rd.
- Derrick Jameson · RBQues. · 2026-10-01
Jameson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against the South Alabama on Saturday.
Mississippi StateQBKamario Taylor
1450 yds · 17 TD · 4 INT
73.0130/729
RBJ.J. Hill
124 yds · 2 TD · 12.4 YPC
90.09/1044
CBJett Jefferson
25 tkl · 8 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.9
- Coverage
- 83.8
- Targets allowed
- 31
- Rec allowed
- 15
- Yards allowed
- 164
- Passer rating allowed
- 96.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
85.124/2969
WRAnthony Evans III
40 rec · 574 yds · 5 TD
82.834/2069
SJardin Gilbert
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 158.3
- Missed tackles
- 2
77.8100/2969
SIsaac Smith
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.3
- Coverage
- 76.8
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 24
- Passer rating allowed
- 66.7
- Missed tackles
- 3
75.6171/2969
Availability reports · 4
- A. Williams · WRout · 2026-10-01
Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play Saturday against the Alabama.
- Trevion Williams · DLout · 2026-09-26
Williams is sidelined due to Leg injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Bull Mitchell · WRout · 2026-09-20
Mitchell is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
- Jamari Freeman · OGQues. · 2026-10-03
Freeman is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against LSU on Saturday, October 10th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
ULMUL Monroe
MSSTMississippi State
vs
Offense
70.1
#99 of 138
QB
Quarterback
73.0
#89 of 138
73.6
#91 of 138
RB
Running backs
89.0
#3 of 138
69.2
#92 of 138
WR
Receivers
75.4
#32 of 138
60.2
#118 of 138
TE
Tight ends
64.6
#92 of 138
64.2
#103 of 138
OL
Offensive line
63.3
#113 of 138
Defense
70.7
#96 of 138
DL
Defensive line
73.2
#66 of 138
71.7
#91 of 138
LB
Linebackers
66.7
#126 of 138
63.4
#137 of 138
DB
Secondary
76.3
#22 of 138