AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:30 PM
#132Away
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
11p
#45Home
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
45p
ULM 1%99% MSST
Spread
MSST -34.4
Total
56
Moneyline
ULM—MSST—
Against the market
MSST +5.9line MSST -28.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ULM advantageevenMSST advantage →
ULM throw
MSST pass rush #115
MSST +34
ULM run
MSST +8
MSST throw
MSST protection #89
MSST +46
MSST run
ULM front #130ULM linebackers #19
ULM +4

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
Noah Flemmings
RB · MSST
MLB · ULM
71.0
86.1
ULM +15
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
Kendel Dolby
TE · ULM
FS · MSST
61.0
64.9
MSST +4
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
Kelley Jones
X · ULM
CB1 · MSST
48.1
75.5
MSST +27
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · MSST
CB1 · ULM
64.0
57.9
MSST +6
off the edge· hunting Armenta
Drew Hutchinson
vs
Gus Cordova
LT · ULM
EDGE · MSST
41.3
59.1
MSST +18
off the edge· hunting Taylor
Canon Boone
vs
James Smith
LT · MSST
EDGE · ULM
51.3
42.7
MSST +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777
Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777

Projected margin

80% between 15 and 52
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMSST +34.4MKT95% interval: 5 to 6080% interval: 15 to 52+15+52ULM wins 1%MSST wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MSST 46–11 ULMMSST 42–35 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 46–32 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 49–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 53–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 56–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSST 60–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 63–14 ULM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 67–11 ULM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 70–7 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 39–32 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 42–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 46–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 49–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 53–18 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSST 56–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 60–11 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 63–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 67–4 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 35–28 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 39–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSST 42–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 46–18 ULM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSST 49–14 ULM neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesMSST 53–11 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSST 56–7 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 60–4 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 63–0 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 32–25 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 35–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 39–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSST 42–14 ULM neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMSST 46–11 ULM neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesMSST 49–7 ULM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSST 53–4 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 56–0 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MSST 28–21 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 32–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSST 35–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 39–11 ULM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSST 42–7 ULM neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesMSST 46–4 ULM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSST 49–0 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MSST 25–18 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 28–14 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 32–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 35–7 ULM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSST 39–4 ULM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSST 42–0 ULM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MSST 21–14 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 25–11 ULM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 28–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 32–4 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSST 35–0 ULM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMSST +7MSST +21MSST +35MSST +49MSST +63margin →