AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 5:00 PM
Golden Egg Trophy
#45Away
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
21p
#14Home
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
36p
MSST 15%85% MISS
Spread
MISS -15.1
Total
57
Moneyline
MSST+550MISS-550
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MSST advantageevenMISS advantage →
MSST throw
MSST protection #89
MISS +17
MSST run
MISS +35
MISS throw
MISS protection #58MSST pass rush #115
MISS +31
MISS run
MISS backs #11
MISS +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
Gav Holman
RB · MISS
MLB · MSST
90.1
62.8
MISS +27
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · MSST
MLB · MISS
71.0
78.6
MISS +8
off the edge· hunting Taylor
Canon Boone
vs
Jonathan Maldonado
LT · MSST
EDGE · MISS
51.3
92.7
MISS +41
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
Kelley Jones
X · MISS
CB1 · MSST
68.4
75.5
MSST +7
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
Antonio Kite
X · MSST
CB1 · MISS
64.0
78.2
MISS +14
over the middle
Luke Hasz
vs
Kendel Dolby
TE · MISS
FS · MSST
59.5
64.9
MSST +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777
Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Mississippi State
opponent
Ole Miss
away-10.3
LSU#20
+7.4home
home-5.0
Missouri#24
+7.6home
away-18.5
Texas#9
-5.9away
home-1.1
Auburn#31
+11.5home
home-10.0
Oklahoma#11
-2.3away
home-5.5
Vanderbilt#23
+2.1away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMISS +15.195% interval: -9.4 to 39.780% interval: -2.7 to 33-3+33MSST wins 15%MISS wins 85%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MISS 35–21 MSSTMISS 32–46 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 35–42 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 39–39 MSST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 42–35 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 46–32 MSST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMISS 49–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 53–25 MSST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMISS 56–21 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 60–18 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 28–42 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 32–39 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 35–35 MSST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 39–32 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMISS 42–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 46–25 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMISS 49–21 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 53–18 MSST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 56–14 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 25–39 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 28–35 MSST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 32–32 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 35–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 39–25 MSST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMISS 42–21 MSST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 46–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMISS 49–14 MSST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 53–11 MSST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 21–35 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 25–32 MSST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 28–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 32–25 MSST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 35–21 MSST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMISS 39–18 MSST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMISS 42–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMISS 46–11 MSST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 49–7 MSST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 18–32 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 21–28 MSST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 25–25 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 28–21 MSST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMISS 32–18 MSST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMISS 35–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 39–11 MSST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMISS 42–7 MSST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 46–4 MSST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 14–28 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 18–25 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 21–21 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMISS 25–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMISS 28–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMISS 32–11 MSST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMISS 35–7 MSST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 39–4 MSST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 42–0 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 11–25 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 14–21 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 18–18 MSST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 21–14 MSST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 25–11 MSST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 28–7 MSST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 32–4 MSST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMISS 35–0 MSST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMSST +14PKMISS +14MISS +28MISS +42margin →