AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#45Away
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
21p
#20Home
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
31p
MSST 24%76% LSU
Spread
LSU -10.3
Total
51
Moneyline
MSST+318LSU-318
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MSST advantageevenLSU advantage →
MSST throw
MSST protection #89
LSU +31
MSST run
LSU +34
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
LSU +13
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
LSU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Kelley Jones
X · LSU
CB1 · MSST
86.3
75.5
LSU +11
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
DJ Pickett
X · MSST
CB1 · LSU
64.0
93.7
LSU +30
off the edge· hunting Taylor
Canon Boone
vs
Princewill Umanmielen
LT · MSST
EDGE · LSU
51.3
99.9
LSU +49
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
TJ Dottery
RB · MSST
MLB · LSU
71.0
69.2
dead even
over the middle
Trey'Dez Green
vs
Kendel Dolby
TE · LSU
FS · MSST
61.1
64.9
MSST +4
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Gav Holman
RB · LSU
MLB · MSST
61.0
62.8
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777
LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Mississippi State
opponent
LSU
away-18.5
Texas#9
-5.7home
home-11.3
Alabama#12
-3.5home
away-15.1
Ole Miss#14
-7.4away
home-1.1
Auburn#31
+1.6away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLSU +10.395% interval: -13.6 to 34.280% interval: -7.1 to 27.7-7+28MSST wins 24%LSU wins 76%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LSU 28–21 MSSTLSU 25–46 MSST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesLSU 28–42 MSST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 32–39 MSST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 35–35 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 39–32 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 42–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 46–25 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 49–21 MSST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 53–18 MSST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 21–42 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 25–39 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 28–35 MSST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 32–32 MSST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 35–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 39–25 MSST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 42–21 MSST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 46–18 MSST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLSU 49–14 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 18–39 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 21–35 MSST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 25–32 MSST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLSU 28–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 32–25 MSST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 35–21 MSST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLSU 39–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 42–14 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 46–11 MSST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 14–35 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 18–32 MSST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 21–28 MSST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLSU 25–25 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 28–21 MSST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 32–18 MSST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 35–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 39–11 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 42–7 MSST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 11–32 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 14–28 MSST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 18–25 MSST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 21–21 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 25–18 MSST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 28–14 MSST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 32–11 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 35–7 MSST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 39–4 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 7–28 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 11–25 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 14–21 MSST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 18–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 21–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 25–11 MSST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLSU 28–7 MSST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 32–4 MSST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 35–0 MSST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 4–25 MSST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesLSU 7–21 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 11–18 MSST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLSU 14–14 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 18–11 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 21–7 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 25–4 MSST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 28–0 MSST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalMSST +21MSST +7LSU +7LSU +21LSU +35margin →