CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET
#38Away
Mississippi State
1-0 · AVR 65.7
38
Final
#34Home
Minnesota
1-0 · AVR 66.3
13
Forecast win probability
MSST 55.0%45.0% MINN
Projected margin
MSST by 2.0
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
MSST 24 to MINN 18
Win probability
MSST 55.0%
FinalMSST 38 · MINN 13model had -2.0, off by 23.0

Current team profiles

Mississippi State
Minnesota

When Mississippi State has the ball

Passing

MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
MSST offense
#19
MINN defense
#38
EPA comparison
0.43
#19
0.06
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
MSST offense
#30
MINN defense
#107
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
0.14
#107
Rush EPA

Drive success

MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
MSST offense
#29
MINN defense
#58
Success rates
48%
#29
39%
#58
Success rate
More metrics
0.28
#24
0.04
#57
EPA / play
1.32
#27
1.18
#50
Explosiveness
14%
#63
22%
#6
Havoc

When Minnesota has the ball

Passing

MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
MSST defense
#75
MINN offense
#76
EPA comparison
0.16
#75
0.20
#76
Pass EPA

Rushing

MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
MSST defense
#73
MINN offense
#123
EPA comparison
0.05
#73
-0.07
#123
Rush EPA

Drive success

MINN offense
Higher-ranked profile
MSST defense
#78
MINN offense
#76
Success rates
41%
#78
43%
#76
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#88
0.05
#106
EPA / play
1.16
#40
1.12
#121
Explosiveness
17%
#43
14%
#63
Havoc

Current key players

Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
1450 yds · 17 TD · 4 INT
73.0130/729
RBJ.J. Hill
124 yds · 2 TD · 12.4 YPC
90.09/1044
CBJett Jefferson
25 tkl · 8 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.9
Coverage
83.8
Targets allowed
31
Rec allowed
15
Yards allowed
164
Passer rating allowed
96.7
Missed tackles
0
85.124/2969
WRAnthony Evans III
40 rec · 574 yds · 5 TD
82.834/2069
SJardin Gilbert
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
86.2
Coverage
71.2
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
158.3
Missed tackles
2
77.8100/2969
SIsaac Smith
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.3
Coverage
76.8
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
24
Passer rating allowed
66.7
Missed tackles
3
75.6171/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • A. Williams · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play Saturday against the Alabama.

  • Trevion Williams · DLout · 2026-09-26

    Williams is sidelined due to Leg injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Bull Mitchell · WRout · 2026-09-20

    Mitchell is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Jamari Freeman · OGQues. · 2026-10-03

    Freeman is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against LSU on Saturday, October 10th.

Minnesota
QBDrake Lindsey
1087 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
72.5133/729
DBJohn Nestor
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.8
Coverage
87.2
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
48
Passer rating allowed
53.8
Missed tackles
2
85.622/2969
DBAydan West
15 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
52.8
Coverage
83.8
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
61
Passer rating allowed
26.8
Missed tackles
3
81.148/2969
LBNate Cleveland
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.5
Coverage
39.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
79.294/1796
WRNoah Jennings
26 rec · 345 yds · 1 TD
78.468/2069
LBMason Carrier
4 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.5
Coverage
70.6
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.8123/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Ashton Beers · OLout · 2026-10-01

    Minnesota Football: Starting center Ashton Beers out for the season - The Daily Gopher

  • Ryan Estrada · RBout · 2026-09-07

    Estrada is out of action due to a knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • A.J. Turner · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Turner is nursing with an undisclosed injury, but he is projected to suit up against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Beckham Sunderland · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sunderland is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Braiden Stevens · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is ailing from illness, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Zeke Bates · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bates is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MSST
MINN
vs
Offense
73.0
#89 of 138
QB
72.5
#93 of 138
89.0
#3 of 138
RB
74.5
#78 of 138
75.4
#32 of 138
WR
74.7
#35 of 138
64.6
#92 of 138
TE
57.3
#134 of 138
63.3
#113 of 138
OL
76.0
#13 of 138
Defense
73.2
#66 of 138
DL
77.1
#35 of 138
66.7
#126 of 138
LB
77.0
#43 of 138
76.3
#22 of 138
DB
74.7
#37 of 138
Common opponents