AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#45Away
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
27p
#54Home
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
27p
MSST 51%49% MINN
Spread
MSST 0.0
Total
53
Moneyline
MSST-103MINN+103
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MSST advantageevenMINN advantage →
MSST throw
MSST protection #89MINN pass rush #20
even
MSST run
MINN +38
MINN throw
MSST pass rush #115
MINN +16
MINN run
MINN +28

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · MSST
MLB · MINN
71.0
78.3
MINN +7
off the edge· hunting Taylor
Canon Boone
vs
Anthony Smith
LT · MSST
EDGE · MINN
51.3
86.8
MINN +35
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Kelley Jones
X · MINN
CB1 · MSST
61.2
75.5
MSST +14
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
John Nestor
X · MSST
CB1 · MINN
64.0
71.9
MINN +8
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Gav Holman
RB · MINN
MLB · MSST
69.0
62.8
MINN +6
off the edge· hunting Lindsey
Tony Nelson
vs
Gus Cordova
LT · MINN
EDGE · MSST
50.2
59.1
MSST +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777
Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMSST +0.095% interval: -23.9 to 23.980% interval: -17.4 to 17.4-17+17MSST wins 51%MINN wins 49%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MINN 28–28 MSSTMINN 25–53 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 28–49 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 32–46 MSST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 35–42 MSST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 39–39 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 42–35 MSST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 46–32 MSST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 49–28 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 53–25 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 21–49 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 25–46 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 28–42 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 32–39 MSST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMINN 35–35 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMINN 39–32 MSST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMINN 42–28 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 46–25 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 49–21 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 18–46 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 21–42 MSST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMINN 25–39 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 28–35 MSST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 32–32 MSST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMINN 35–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 39–25 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 42–21 MSST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMINN 46–18 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 14–42 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 18–39 MSST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 21–35 MSST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 25–32 MSST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 28–28 MSST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMINN 32–25 MSST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 35–21 MSST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 39–18 MSST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 42–14 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 11–39 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 14–35 MSST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 18–32 MSST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 21–28 MSST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 25–25 MSST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMINN 28–21 MSST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 32–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 35–14 MSST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 39–11 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 7–35 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 11–32 MSST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMINN 14–28 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 18–25 MSST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 21–21 MSST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 25–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 28–14 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 32–11 MSST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMINN 35–7 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 4–32 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 7–28 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 11–25 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 14–21 MSST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMINN 18–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMINN 21–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMINN 25–11 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 28–7 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 32–4 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMSST +28MSST +14PKMINN +14MINN +28margin →