AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#11Away
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
30p
#45Home
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
21p
OU 75%25% MSST
Spread
OU -10.0
Total
51
Moneyline
OU-307MSST+307
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OU advantageevenMSST advantage →
OU throw
MSST pass rush #115
OU +26
OU run
OU +36
MSST throw
MSST protection #89
OU +32
MSST run
OU +54

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · MSST
MLB · OU
71.0
92.3
OU +21
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · MSST
CB1 · OU
64.0
86.1
OU +22
off the edge· hunting Taylor
Canon Boone
vs
Taylor Wein
LT · MSST
EDGE · OU
51.3
96.5
OU +45
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Kelley Jones
X · OU
CB1 · MSST
71.1
75.5
MSST +4
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Gus Cordova
LT · OU
EDGE · MSST
74.3
59.1
OU +15
over the middle
Jack Van Dorselaer
vs
Kendel Dolby
TE · OU
FS · MSST
61.7
64.9
MSST +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oklahoma
opponent
Mississippi State
home+8.5
South Carolina#29
-9.0away
home+2.3
Ole Miss#14
-15.1away
neutral-3.5
Texas#9
-18.5away
away+2.5
Missouri#24
-5.0home

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOU +10.095% interval: -33.9 to 13.980% interval: -27.4 to 7.4-27+7OU wins 75%MSST wins 25%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OU 28–21 MSSTMSST 18–53 OU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 21–49 OU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 25–46 OU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 28–42 OU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 32–39 OU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 35–35 OU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSST 39–32 OU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 42–28 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 46–25 OU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMSST 14–49 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 18–46 OU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 21–42 OU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSST 25–39 OU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 28–35 OU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSST 32–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 35–28 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 39–25 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 42–21 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 11–46 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 14–42 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 18–39 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSST 21–35 OU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSST 25–32 OU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSST 28–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 32–25 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSST 35–21 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 39–18 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 7–42 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 11–39 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 14–35 OU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 18–32 OU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSST 21–28 OU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSST 25–25 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 28–21 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSST 32–18 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 35–14 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 4–39 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 7–35 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 11–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSST 14–28 OU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSST 18–25 OU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSST 21–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSST 25–18 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 28–14 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 32–11 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 0–35 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 4–32 OU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 7–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 11–25 OU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 14–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 18–18 OU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 21–14 OU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSST 25–11 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 28–7 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MSST 0–28 OU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 4–25 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 7–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 11–18 OU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 14–14 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 18–11 OU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 21–7 OU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 25–4 OU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalOU +35OU +21OU +7MSST +7MSST +21margin →