CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
OU 56.8%43.2% MSST
Projected margin
OU by 2.6
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
OU 21 to MSST 16
Win probability
OU 56.8%

Current team profiles

Oklahoma
Mississippi State

When Oklahoma has the ball

Passing

OU offense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#55
MSST defense
#75
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
0.16
#75
Pass EPA

Rushing

MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#138
MSST defense
#73
EPA comparison
-0.24
#138
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#119
MSST defense
#78
Success rates
38%
#119
41%
#78
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#129
0.09
#88
EPA / play
1.06
#132
1.16
#40
Explosiveness
17%
#114
17%
#43
Havoc

When Mississippi State has the ball

Passing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#12
MSST offense
#19
EPA comparison
-0.07
#12
0.43
#19
Pass EPA

Rushing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#26
MSST offense
#30
EPA comparison
-0.08
#26
0.20
#30
Rush EPA

Drive success

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#2
MSST offense
#29
Success rates
32%
#2
48%
#29
Success rate
More metrics
-0.16
#3
0.28
#24
EPA / play
1.27
#89
1.32
#27
Explosiveness
21%
#14
14%
#63
Havoc

Current key players

Oklahoma
QBWhitt Newbauer
6 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
65.3214/729
DBPeyton Bowen
17 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
84.925/2969
LBDane Bathurst
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.9
Coverage
63.9
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.560/1796
TETrynae Washington
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.4
Run blocking
81.4
Penalties
0
79.229/1017
WRIsaiah Sategna III
20 rec · 267 yds · 2 TD
75.7115/2069
DBEli Bowen
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.3
Coverage
64.2
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
124
Passer rating allowed
58.4
Missed tackles
1
70.5412/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Trell Harris · WRout · 2026-09-15

    Harris sustained a back injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jer'Michael Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Carter is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Van Dorselaer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Dorselaer is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
1450 yds · 17 TD · 4 INT
73.0130/729
RBJ.J. Hill
124 yds · 2 TD · 12.4 YPC
90.09/1044
CBJett Jefferson
25 tkl · 8 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.9
Coverage
83.8
Targets allowed
31
Rec allowed
15
Yards allowed
164
Passer rating allowed
96.7
Missed tackles
0
85.124/2969
WRAnthony Evans III
40 rec · 574 yds · 5 TD
82.834/2069
SJardin Gilbert
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
86.2
Coverage
71.2
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
158.3
Missed tackles
2
77.8100/2969
SIsaac Smith
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.3
Coverage
76.8
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
24
Passer rating allowed
66.7
Missed tackles
3
75.6171/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • A. Williams · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play Saturday against the Alabama.

  • Trevion Williams · DLout · 2026-09-26

    Williams is sidelined due to Leg injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Bull Mitchell · WRout · 2026-09-20

    Mitchell is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Jamari Freeman · OGQues. · 2026-10-03

    Freeman is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against LSU on Saturday, October 10th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

OU
MSST
vs
Offense
65.3
#119 of 138
QB
73.0
#89 of 138
67.2
#134 of 138
RB
89.0
#3 of 138
68.7
#99 of 138
WR
75.4
#32 of 138
79.2
#27 of 138
TE
64.6
#92 of 138
73.3
#25 of 138
OL
63.3
#113 of 138
Defense
77.6
#30 of 138
DL
73.2
#66 of 138
73.7
#74 of 138
LB
66.7
#126 of 138
71.9
#72 of 138
DB
76.3
#22 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Oklahoma
opponent
Mississippi State
N+3.0
TEX#7
-13.0A
H+2.9
MISS#14
-7.6A
A-2.5
MIZ#15
+7.0H
H+8.6
SC#38
+7.0A