AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 6:00 PM
Away
Tennessee Tech
—
12p
#45Home
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
44p
TNTC 1%99% MSST
Spread
MSST -31.8
Total
56
Moneyline
TNTC—MSST—
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777

Projected margin

80% between 15 and 49
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMSST +31.895% interval: 8.5 to 5580% interval: 14.9 to 48.7+15+49TNTC wins 1%MSST wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MSST 46–11 TNTCMSST 42–35 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 46–32 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 49–28 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 53–25 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 56–21 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 60–18 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 63–14 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 67–11 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 70–7 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMSST 39–32 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 42–28 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 46–25 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 49–21 TNTC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSST 53–18 TNTC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSST 56–14 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSST 60–11 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 63–7 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 67–4 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 35–28 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 39–25 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 42–21 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 46–18 TNTC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMSST 49–14 TNTC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMSST 53–11 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 56–7 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSST 60–4 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 63–0 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 32–25 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 35–21 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSST 39–18 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 42–14 TNTC neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesMSST 46–11 TNTC neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesMSST 49–7 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSST 53–4 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 56–0 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MSST 28–21 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 32–18 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 35–14 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 39–11 TNTC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMSST 42–7 TNTC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMSST 46–4 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 49–0 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MSST 25–18 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 28–14 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 32–11 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 35–7 TNTC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSST 39–4 TNTC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSST 42–0 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MSST 21–14 TNTC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 25–11 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 28–7 TNTC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 32–4 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 35–0 TNTC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMSST +7MSST +21MSST +35MSST +49MSST +63margin →