AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#23Away
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
31p
#45Home
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
26p
VAN 65%35% MSST
Spread
VAN -5.5
Total
57
Moneyline
VAN-183MSST+183
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VAN advantageevenMSST advantage →
VAN throw
VAN WR #7MSST pass rush #115
VAN +20
VAN run
VAN +51
MSST throw
MSST protection #89VAN pass rush #13
VAN +6
MSST run
VAN +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
Kelley Jones
X · VAN
CB1 · MSST
86.4
75.5
VAN +11
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · MSST
MLB · VAN
71.0
76.8
VAN +6
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Gav Holman
RB · VAN
MLB · MSST
81.4
62.8
VAN +19
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · MSST
CB1 · VAN
64.0
79.0
VAN +15
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Gus Cordova
LT · VAN
EDGE · MSST
78.0
59.1
VAN +19
over the middle
Cole Spence
vs
Kendel Dolby
TE · VAN
FS · MSST
71.3
64.9
VAN +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287
Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Vanderbilt
opponent
Mississippi State
home-2.1
Ole Miss#14
-15.1away
home-3.3
Alabama#12
-11.3home
away+1.9
Auburn#31
-1.1home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVAN +5.595% interval: -29.4 to 18.480% interval: -22.9 to 11.9-23+12VAN wins 65%MSST wins 35%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VAN 32–25 MSSTMSST 21–56 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 25–53 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 28–49 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSST 32–46 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSST 35–42 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 39–39 VAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 42–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 46–32 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 49–28 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 18–53 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 21–49 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 25–46 VAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 28–42 VAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSST 32–39 VAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSST 35–35 VAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 39–32 VAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 42–28 VAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 46–25 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 14–49 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 18–46 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 21–42 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSST 25–39 VAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 28–35 VAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSST 32–32 VAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSST 35–28 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 39–25 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSST 42–21 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 11–46 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 14–42 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 18–39 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSST 21–35 VAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 25–32 VAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSST 28–28 VAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSST 32–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 35–21 VAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 39–18 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 7–42 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 11–39 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 14–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 18–32 VAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 21–28 VAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSST 25–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSST 28–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSST 32–18 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSST 35–14 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 4–39 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 7–35 VAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 11–32 VAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 14–28 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 18–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 21–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSST 25–18 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSST 28–14 VAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 32–11 VAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 0–35 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 4–32 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 7–28 VAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 11–25 VAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 14–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 18–18 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSST 21–14 VAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 25–11 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 28–7 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalVAN +35VAN +21VAN +7MSST +7MSST +21margin →