AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#23Away
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
21p
#3Home
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
37p
VAN 13%87% UGA
Spread
UGA -16.4
Total
58
Moneyline
VAN+668UGA-668
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VAN advantageevenUGA advantage →
VAN throw
VAN WR #7UGA pass rush #88
VAN +6
VAN run
UGA front #88UGA linebackers #4
VAN +11
UGA throw
VAN pass rush #13
UGA +7
UGA run
VAN +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
KJ Bolden
X · VAN
CB1 · UGA
86.4
81.2
VAN +5
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Chris Cole
RB · VAN
MLB · UGA
81.4
85.5
UGA +4
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · UGA
MLB · VAN
81.1
76.8
UGA +4
off the edge· hunting Stockton
Drew Bobo
vs
Miles Capers
LT · UGA
EDGE · VAN
63.4
83.8
VAN +20
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · UGA
CB1 · VAN
63.4
79.0
VAN +16
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Elijah Griffin
LT · VAN
EDGE · UGA
78.0
64.1
VAN +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287
Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Vanderbilt
opponent
Georgia
away+1.9
Auburn#31
+20.8home
away-1.8
Florida#25
+14.6neutral
home+10.0
Arkansas#40
+19.0away
home-2.1
Ole Miss#14
+6.8away
home-3.3
Alabama#12
+5.6away

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +16.495% interval: -7.5 to 40.380% interval: -0.9 to 33.8-1+34VAN wins 13%UGA wins 87%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 35–21 VANUGA 32–46 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 35–42 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 39–39 VAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 42–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 46–32 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 49–28 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 53–25 VAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 56–21 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 60–18 VAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 28–42 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 32–39 VAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUGA 35–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 39–32 VAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 42–28 VAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUGA 46–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 49–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUGA 53–18 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 56–14 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 25–39 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 28–35 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 32–32 VAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUGA 35–28 VAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 39–25 VAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUGA 42–21 VAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 46–18 VAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 49–14 VAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 53–11 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 21–35 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 25–32 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 28–28 VAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUGA 32–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 35–21 VAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUGA 39–18 VAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUGA 42–14 VAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUGA 46–11 VAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 49–7 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 18–32 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 21–28 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 25–25 VAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 28–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 32–18 VAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 35–14 VAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUGA 39–11 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 42–7 VAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUGA 46–4 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 14–28 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 18–25 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 21–21 VAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUGA 25–18 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 28–14 VAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 32–11 VAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 35–7 VAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 39–4 VAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 42–0 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 11–25 VAN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUGA 14–21 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 18–18 VAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUGA 21–14 VAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 25–11 VAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 28–7 VAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 32–4 VAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 35–0 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalVAN +14PKUGA +14UGA +28UGA +42margin →