AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#14Away
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
31p
#23Home
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
29p
MISS 56%44% VAN
Spread
MISS -2.1
Total
59
Moneyline
MISS-127VAN+127
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MISS advantageevenVAN advantage →
MISS throw
MISS protection #58VAN pass rush #13
MISS +12
MISS run
MISS backs #11
VAN +17
VAN throw
VAN WR #7
MISS +10
VAN run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Jonathan Maldonado
LT · VAN
EDGE · MISS
78.0
92.7
MISS +15
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · MISS
MLB · VAN
90.1
76.8
MISS +13
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
Antonio Kite
X · VAN
CB1 · MISS
86.4
78.2
VAN +8
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · VAN
MLB · MISS
81.4
78.6
dead even
off the edge· hunting Chambliss
Tommy Kinsler IV
vs
Miles Capers
LT · MISS
EDGE · VAN
65.2
83.8
VAN +19
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · MISS
CB1 · VAN
68.4
79.0
VAN +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777
Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ole Miss
opponent
Vanderbilt
home+11.5
Auburn#31
+1.9away
home+15.1
Mississippi State#45
+5.5away
home-6.8
Georgia#3
-16.4away
away+2.8
Florida#25
-1.8away

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMISS +2.195% interval: -26 to 21.880% interval: -19.5 to 15.3-19+15MISS wins 56%VAN wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VAN 28–28 MISSVAN 25–53 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 28–49 MISS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 32–46 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 35–42 MISS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 39–39 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 42–35 MISS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVAN 46–32 MISS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 49–28 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 53–25 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 21–49 MISS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 25–46 MISS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 28–42 MISS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 32–39 MISS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVAN 35–35 MISS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVAN 39–32 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 42–28 MISS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 46–25 MISS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 49–21 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 18–46 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 21–42 MISS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 25–39 MISS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 28–35 MISS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVAN 32–32 MISS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVAN 35–28 MISS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 39–25 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 42–21 MISS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 46–18 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 14–42 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 18–39 MISS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 21–35 MISS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 25–32 MISS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVAN 28–28 MISS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVAN 32–25 MISS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 35–21 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 39–18 MISS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 42–14 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 11–39 MISS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 14–35 MISS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 18–32 MISS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 21–28 MISS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVAN 25–25 MISS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVAN 28–21 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 32–18 MISS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 35–14 MISS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 39–11 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 7–35 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 11–32 MISS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 14–28 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 18–25 MISS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 21–21 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 25–18 MISS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVAN 28–14 MISS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 32–11 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 35–7 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 4–32 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 7–28 MISS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 11–25 MISS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 14–21 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 18–18 MISS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 21–14 MISS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 25–11 MISS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 28–7 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 32–4 MISS neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalMISS +28MISS +14PKVAN +14VAN +28margin →