CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MISS 57.8%42.2% VAN
Projected margin
MISS by 2.8
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
MISS 24 to VAN 17
Win probability
MISS 57.8%
FinalMISS 52 · VAN 17model had -2.8, off by 32.2

Current team profiles

Ole Miss
Vanderbilt

When Ole Miss has the ball

Passing

MISS offense
Higher-ranked profile
MISS offense
#15
VAN defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.45
#15
0.22
#93
Pass EPA

Rushing

MISS offense
Higher-ranked profile
MISS offense
#42
VAN defense
#81
EPA comparison
0.17
#42
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

MISS offense
Higher-ranked profile
MISS offense
#4
VAN defense
#97
Success rates
53%
#4
43%
#97
Success rate
More metrics
0.27
#26
0.11
#92
EPA / play
1.13
#115
1.22
#72
Explosiveness
13%
#37
15%
#83
Havoc

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Passing

VAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
MISS defense
#98
VAN offense
#76
EPA comparison
0.25
#98
0.20
#76
Pass EPA

Rushing

VAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
MISS defense
#102
VAN offense
#79
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
0.09
#79
Rush EPA

Drive success

VAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
MISS defense
#114
VAN offense
#102
Success rates
45%
#114
40%
#102
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#105
0.05
#105
EPA / play
1.17
#42
1.25
#57
Explosiveness
16%
#65
16%
#101
Havoc

Current key players

Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
1222 yds · 8 TD · 3 INT
85.044/729
TECaleb Odom
13 rec · 201 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
74.8
Run blocking
70.3
Penalties
1
79.427/1017
WRDeuce Alexander
27 rec · 429 yds · 4 TD
78.567/2069
WRDillon Alfred
1 rec · 34 yds · 0 TD
77.185/2069
RBKewan Lacy
191 yds · 4 TD · 4.9 YPC
76.0150/1044
CBDorian Barney
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.4
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.5256/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Izaiah Hartrup · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hartrup is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tigers on Saturday, October 17th.

Vanderbilt
QBWhit Muschamp
18 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
73.9121/729
TEMaurice Veney
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.9
Run blocking
78.6
Penalties
0
82.818/1017
SCJ Heard
40 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
86.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
121.1
Missed tackles
4
80.951/2969
SMason Lewis
20 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.8
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
72
Passer rating allowed
77.6
Missed tackles
3
79.274/2969
LBBryan Longwell
31 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
65.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
75.7163/1796
SRicardo Jones
22 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
80.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
43
Passer rating allowed
94.1
Missed tackles
5
75.1190/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Kahden Smith · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Smith has been out of the lineup due to a leg injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • J. Curtis · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Curtis is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MISS
VAN
vs
Offense
85.0
#40 of 138
QB
73.9
#86 of 138
70.9
#114 of 138
RB
69.7
#123 of 138
77.1
#25 of 138
WR
66.9
#122 of 138
79.4
#26 of 138
TE
82.8
#18 of 138
64.5
#100 of 138
OL
61.2
#126 of 138
Defense
73.0
#71 of 138
DL
71.4
#92 of 138
71.2
#94 of 138
LB
69.4
#107 of 138
69.9
#99 of 138
DB
76.1
#24 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Ole Miss
opponent
Vanderbilt
A-24.0
FLA#22
-4.0A
H-6.9
UGA#6
-24.0A
H+6.4
AUB#42
-6.0A
H+7.6
MSST#35
-2.1A