CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
APSU 2.1%97.9% VAN
Projected margin
VAN by 32.4
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
VAN 12 to VAN 53
Win probability
VAN 97.9%
FinalAPSU 9 · VAN 28model had +32.4, off by 13.4

Current team profiles

Austin Peay
Vanderbilt

When Austin Peay has the ball

Passing

No comparison
APSU offense
—
VAN defense
#93
EPA comparison
—
0.22
#93
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
APSU offense
—
VAN defense
#81
EPA comparison
—
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
APSU offense
#14
VAN defense
#97
Success rates
49%
#14
43%
#97
Success rate
More metrics
0.31
#3
0.11
#92
EPA / play
0.26
#2
1.22
#72
Explosiveness
—
15%
#83
Havoc

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Passing

No comparison
APSU defense
—
VAN offense
#76
EPA comparison
—
0.20
#76
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
APSU defense
—
VAN offense
#79
EPA comparison
—
0.09
#79
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
APSU defense
#30
VAN offense
#102
Success rates
41%
#30
40%
#102
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#4
0.05
#105
EPA / play
0.19
#34
1.25
#57
Explosiveness
—
16%
#101
Havoc

Current key players

Austin Peay
QBChris Parson
1396 yds · 11 TD · 1 INT
91.46/370
OLJoshua Sales Jr.
Player detail
Pass blocking
91.1
Run blocking
77.6
Penalties
0
86.12/1368
DLKelton Crisp
20 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Pressures
33
Pass-rush snaps
154
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
85.211/1549
WRMarvin Sims
24 rec · 450 yds · 2 TD
83.510/1229
QBKelvin Perkins III
— yds · — TD · — INT
81.932/370
LBKeith Charney
14 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
65.6
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
80.538/1054
Vanderbilt
QBWhit Muschamp
18 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
73.9121/729
TEMaurice Veney
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.9
Run blocking
78.6
Penalties
0
82.818/1017
SCJ Heard
40 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
86.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
121.1
Missed tackles
4
80.951/2969
SMason Lewis
20 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.8
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
72
Passer rating allowed
77.6
Missed tackles
3
79.274/2969
LBBryan Longwell
31 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
65.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
75.7163/1796
SRicardo Jones
22 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
80.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
43
Passer rating allowed
94.1
Missed tackles
5
75.1190/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Kahden Smith · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Smith has been out of the lineup due to a leg injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • J. Curtis · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Curtis is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

APSU
VAN
vs
Offense
91.4
#6 of 125
QB
73.9
#86 of 138
70.1
#76 of 126
RB
69.7
#123 of 138
76.1
#8 of 126
WR
66.9
#122 of 138
66.3
#54 of 124
TE
82.8
#18 of 138
72.7
#10 of 125
OL
61.2
#126 of 138
Defense
80.5
#4 of 126
DL
71.4
#92 of 138
73.1
#45 of 126
LB
69.4
#107 of 138
71.5
#61 of 126
DB
76.1
#24 of 138
Common opponents