CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
VAN 39.8%60.3% FLA
Projected margin
FLA by 4.0
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
VAN 15 to FLA 23
Win probability
FLA 60.3%

Current team profiles

Vanderbilt
Florida

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Passing

VAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN offense
#76
FLA defense
#98
EPA comparison
0.20
#76
0.25
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

FLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN offense
#79
FLA defense
#63
EPA comparison
0.09
#79
0.03
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

FLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN offense
#102
FLA defense
#83
Success rates
40%
#102
42%
#83
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#105
0.09
#82
EPA / play
1.25
#57
1.25
#85
Explosiveness
16%
#101
18%
#30
Havoc

When Florida has the ball

Passing

FLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN defense
#93
FLA offense
#19
EPA comparison
0.22
#93
0.43
#19
Pass EPA

Rushing

FLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN defense
#81
FLA offense
#35
EPA comparison
0.06
#81
0.19
#35
Rush EPA

Drive success

FLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN defense
#97
FLA offense
#30
Success rates
43%
#97
48%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#92
0.28
#22
EPA / play
1.22
#72
1.23
#71
Explosiveness
15%
#83
12%
#29
Havoc

Current key players

Vanderbilt
QBWhit Muschamp
18 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
73.9121/729
TEMaurice Veney
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.9
Run blocking
78.6
Penalties
0
82.818/1017
SCJ Heard
40 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
86.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
121.1
Missed tackles
4
80.951/2969
SMason Lewis
20 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.8
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
72
Passer rating allowed
77.6
Missed tackles
3
79.274/2969
LBBryan Longwell
31 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
65.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
75.7163/1796
SRicardo Jones
22 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
80.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
43
Passer rating allowed
94.1
Missed tackles
5
75.1190/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Kahden Smith · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Smith has been out of the lineup due to a leg injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • J. Curtis · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Curtis is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

Florida
QBAaron Philo
1114 yds · 8 TD · 2 INT
80.170/729
LBKJ Ford
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
96.1
Coverage
44.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
12
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
90.112/1796
WRJustin Williams
2 rec · 21 yds · 0 TD
89.49/2069
RBJadan Baugh
613 yds · 11 TD · 6.5 YPC
88.617/1044
WRVernell Brown III
17 rec · 271 yds · 2 TD
87.814/2069
TEMicah Jones
1 rec · 6 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.8
Run blocking
76.0
Penalties
0
83.715/1017
Availability reports · 6
  • Kelvin Jimenez · RBout · 2026-09-05

    Jimenez is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Davian Groce · WRout · 2026-09-07

    Groce is sidelined with a back injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • V. Brown III · WRQues. · 2026-10-05

    Brown III is nursing a knee injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against South Carolina on Saturday.

  • Eric Singleton Jr. · WRprobable · 2026-09-28

    Singleton Jr is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to be active against Missouri on Saturday.

  • London Montgomery · RBprobable · 2026-10-09

    Montgomery is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is likely to suit up against the South Carolina on Sunday.

  • Bailey Stockton · WRprobable · 2026-10-02

    Stockton is dealing with a back injury, and he is likely to be available against Missouri on Saturday, 3rd October.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

VAN
FLA
vs
Offense
73.9
#86 of 138
QB
80.1
#56 of 138
69.7
#123 of 138
RB
85.5
#9 of 138
66.9
#122 of 138
WR
84.5
#1 of 138
82.8
#18 of 138
TE
83.7
#15 of 138
61.2
#126 of 138
OL
73.7
#23 of 138
Defense
71.4
#92 of 138
DL
82.7
#5 of 138
69.4
#107 of 138
LB
81.7
#12 of 138
76.1
#24 of 138
DB
70.3
#91 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Vanderbilt
opponent
Florida
H-35.0
MISS#14
+24.0H
A-24.0
UGA#6
-12.6N
A-6.0
AUB#42
+5.0A
A+2.0
UK#40
+3.4A