AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#23Away
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
26p
#25Home
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
28p
VAN 45%55% FLA
Spread
FLA -1.8
Total
55
Moneyline
VAN+122FLA-122
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VAN advantageevenFLA advantage →
VAN throw
VAN WR #7
even
VAN run
FLA +9
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
VAN +18
FLA run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Emmanuel Oyebadejo
LT · VAN
EDGE · FLA
78.0
90.7
FLA +13
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Myles Graham
RB · VAN
MLB · FLA
81.4
86.1
FLA +5
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · VAN
CB1 · FLA
86.4
72.0
VAN +14
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · FLA
MLB · VAN
80.9
76.8
FLA +4
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · FLA
CB1 · VAN
71.4
79.0
VAN +8
over the middle
Cole Spence
vs
Javion Toombs
TE · VAN
FS · FLA
71.3
61.0
VAN +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287
Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Vanderbilt
opponent
Florida
away-16.4
Georgia#3
-14.6neutral
away+1.9
Auburn#31
+1.2away
home-2.1
Ole Miss#14
-2.8home
away+12.5
Kentucky#67
+11.9away

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFLA +1.895% interval: -22.1 to 25.780% interval: -15.6 to 19.2-16+19VAN wins 45%FLA wins 55%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FLA 28–28 VANFLA 25–53 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 28–49 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 32–46 VAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFLA 35–42 VAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 39–39 VAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFLA 42–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFLA 46–32 VAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 49–28 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 53–25 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 21–49 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 25–46 VAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 28–42 VAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 32–39 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 35–35 VAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFLA 39–32 VAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 42–28 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFLA 46–25 VAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFLA 49–21 VAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 18–46 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 21–42 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 25–39 VAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFLA 28–35 VAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFLA 32–32 VAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFLA 35–28 VAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFLA 39–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 42–21 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFLA 46–18 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 14–42 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 18–39 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFLA 21–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFLA 25–32 VAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFLA 28–28 VAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFLA 32–25 VAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFLA 35–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFLA 39–18 VAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFLA 42–14 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 11–39 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 14–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFLA 18–32 VAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFLA 21–28 VAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 25–25 VAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFLA 28–21 VAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFLA 32–18 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFLA 35–14 VAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFLA 39–11 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 7–35 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 11–32 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 14–28 VAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFLA 18–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFLA 21–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFLA 25–18 VAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 28–14 VAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFLA 32–11 VAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFLA 35–7 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 4–32 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 7–28 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 11–25 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFLA 14–21 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFLA 18–18 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFLA 21–14 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 25–11 VAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFLA 28–7 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFLA 32–4 VAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalVAN +28VAN +14PKFLA +14FLA +28margin →