CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ARK 20.9%79.1% VAN
Projected margin
VAN by 12.5
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
ARK 6 to VAN 31
Win probability
VAN 79.1%

Current team profiles

Arkansas
Vanderbilt

When Arkansas has the ball

Passing

ARK offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK offense
#88
VAN defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.14
#88
0.22
#93
Pass EPA

Rushing

VAN defense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK offense
#134
VAN defense
#81
EPA comparison
-0.11
#134
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARK offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK offense
#96
VAN defense
#97
Success rates
41%
#96
43%
#97
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#120
0.11
#92
EPA / play
1.08
#129
1.22
#72
Explosiveness
19%
#126
15%
#83
Havoc

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Passing

VAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK defense
#84
VAN offense
#76
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.20
#76
Pass EPA

Rushing

VAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK defense
#125
VAN offense
#79
EPA comparison
0.20
#125
0.09
#79
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARK defense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK defense
#100
VAN offense
#102
Success rates
43%
#100
40%
#102
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#111
0.05
#105
EPA / play
1.16
#38
1.25
#57
Explosiveness
13%
#111
16%
#101
Havoc

Current key players

Arkansas
QBKJ Jackson
1038 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
64.0225/729
WRChris Marshall
35 rec · 517 yds · 2 TD
81.246/2069
LBBen Bogle
36 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.7
Coverage
58.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
78.799/1796
DBShelton Lewis
13 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
81.3
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
45
Passer rating allowed
64.6
Missed tackles
1
78.584/2969
DBKhmori House
33 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
68.2
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
107
Passer rating allowed
94.5
Missed tackles
1
73.2266/2969
WRJelani Watkins
27 rush yds · 0 TD · 3 car
73.0164/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Maddox Lassiter · TEout · 2026-08-16

    Lassiter has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an upper body injury.

  • H. Hendrix · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hendrix is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Commodores on Saturday, October 17th.

Vanderbilt
QBWhit Muschamp
18 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
73.9121/729
TEMaurice Veney
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.9
Run blocking
78.6
Penalties
0
82.818/1017
SCJ Heard
40 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
86.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
121.1
Missed tackles
4
80.951/2969
SMason Lewis
20 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.8
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
72
Passer rating allowed
77.6
Missed tackles
3
79.274/2969
LBBryan Longwell
31 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
65.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
75.7163/1796
SRicardo Jones
22 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
80.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
43
Passer rating allowed
94.1
Missed tackles
5
75.1190/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Kahden Smith · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Smith has been out of the lineup due to a leg injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • J. Curtis · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Curtis is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ARK
VAN
vs
Offense
64.0
#122 of 138
QB
73.9
#86 of 138
67.0
#135 of 138
RB
69.7
#123 of 138
72.9
#50 of 138
WR
66.9
#122 of 138
61.8
#107 of 138
TE
82.8
#18 of 138
64.3
#102 of 138
OL
61.2
#126 of 138
Defense
72.4
#79 of 138
DL
71.4
#92 of 138
70.2
#103 of 138
LB
69.4
#107 of 138
70.2
#94 of 138
DB
76.1
#24 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Arkansas
opponent
Vanderbilt
A-13.2
AUB#42
-6.0A
H-28.0
UGA#6
-24.0A
H-7.0
TENN#21
-5.5H