AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#40Away
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
26p
#23Home
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
36p
ARK 25%75% VAN
Spread
VAN -10.0
Total
62
Moneyline
ARK+293VAN-293
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARK advantageevenVAN advantage →
ARK throw
VAN pass rush #13
VAN +12
ARK run
VAN +29
VAN throw
VAN WR #7
VAN +11
VAN run
ARK linebackers #107
VAN +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Steven Soles Jr.
LT · VAN
EDGE · ARK
78.0
85.2
ARK +7
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · VAN
MLB · ARK
81.4
77.0
VAN +4
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
Joker Johnson
X · VAN
CB1 · ARK
86.4
70.0
VAN +16
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · ARK
MLB · VAN
68.8
76.8
VAN +8
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
Jalen Gilbert
TE · ARK
FS · VAN
78.6
57.5
ARK +21
when ARK throws
Jamari Hawkins
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · ARK
CB1 · VAN
56.7
79.0
VAN +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arkansas
opponent
Vanderbilt
home-8.8
Tennessee#17
-1.3home
away-5.6
Auburn#31
+1.9away
home-19.0
Georgia#3
-16.4away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVAN +10.095% interval: -13.9 to 33.980% interval: -7.4 to 27.4-7+27ARK wins 25%VAN wins 75%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VAN 35–28 ARKVAN 32–53 ARK neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesVAN 35–49 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 39–46 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 42–42 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 46–39 ARK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVAN 49–35 ARK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVAN 53–32 ARK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 56–28 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 60–25 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 28–49 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 32–46 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 35–42 ARK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 39–39 ARK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVAN 42–35 ARK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 46–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 49–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVAN 53–25 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 56–21 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 25–46 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 28–42 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 32–39 ARK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 35–35 ARK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 39–32 ARK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVAN 42–28 ARK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVAN 46–25 ARK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 49–21 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 53–18 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 21–42 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 25–39 ARK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 28–35 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 32–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVAN 35–28 ARK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVAN 39–25 ARK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVAN 42–21 ARK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 46–18 ARK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 49–14 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 18–39 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 21–35 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 25–32 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 28–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 32–25 ARK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVAN 35–21 ARK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVAN 39–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 42–14 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 46–11 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 14–35 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 18–32 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 21–28 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 25–25 ARK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVAN 28–21 ARK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 32–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 35–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 39–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 42–7 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 11–32 ARK neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesVAN 14–28 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 18–25 ARK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesVAN 21–21 ARK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 25–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 28–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 32–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 35–7 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 39–4 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalARK +21ARK +7VAN +7VAN +21VAN +35margin →