AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#12Away
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
30p
#23Home
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
27p
ALA 59%41% VAN
Spread
ALA -3.3
Total
57
Moneyline
ALA-146VAN+146
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ALA advantageevenVAN advantage →
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
VAN +7
ALA run
VAN +21
VAN throw
VAN WR #7ALA pass rush #67
ALA +8
VAN run
VAN +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · VAN
CB1 · ALA
86.4
87.6
dead even
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · VAN
MLB · ALA
81.4
87.5
ALA +6
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · ALA
CB1 · VAN
78.5
79.0
dead even
over the middle
Cole Spence
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · VAN
FS · ALA
71.3
83.7
ALA +12
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Jeremiah Beaman
LT · VAN
EDGE · ALA
78.0
73.4
VAN +5
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · ALA
MLB · VAN
64.3
76.8
VAN +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Alabama
opponent
Vanderbilt
home-5.6
Georgia#3
-16.4away
home+12.7
Auburn#31
+1.9away
away+18.4
Kentucky#67
+12.5away
away+11.3
Mississippi State#45
+5.5away
away-0.5
Tennessee#17
-1.3home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKALA +3.395% interval: -27.2 to 20.680% interval: -20.7 to 14.1-21+14ALA wins 59%VAN wins 41%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VAN 28–28 ALAVAN 25–53 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 28–49 ALA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 32–46 ALA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 35–42 ALA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 39–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVAN 42–35 ALA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 46–32 ALA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 49–28 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 53–25 ALA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesVAN 21–49 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 25–46 ALA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 28–42 ALA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 32–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 35–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 39–32 ALA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVAN 42–28 ALA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 46–25 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 49–21 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 18–46 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 21–42 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 25–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 28–35 ALA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVAN 32–32 ALA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVAN 35–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 39–25 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 42–21 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 46–18 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 14–42 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 18–39 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 21–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 25–32 ALA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVAN 28–28 ALA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVAN 32–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 35–21 ALA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 39–18 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 42–14 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 11–39 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 14–35 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 18–32 ALA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 21–28 ALA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVAN 25–25 ALA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVAN 28–21 ALA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 32–18 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 35–14 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 39–11 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 7–35 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 11–32 ALA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 14–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVAN 18–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 21–21 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 25–18 ALA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVAN 28–14 ALA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 32–11 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 35–7 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 4–32 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 7–28 ALA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 11–25 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 14–21 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVAN 18–18 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVAN 21–14 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 25–11 ALA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 28–7 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 32–4 ALA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalALA +28ALA +14PKVAN +14VAN +28margin →