CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
ALA 80.1%19.9% VAN
Projected margin
ALA by 13.4
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
ALA 32 to VAN 5
Win probability
ALA 80.1%

Current team profiles

Alabama
Vanderbilt

When Alabama has the ball

Passing

ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA offense
#22
VAN defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.42
#22
0.22
#93
Pass EPA

Rushing

ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA offense
#9
VAN defense
#81
EPA comparison
0.27
#9
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA offense
#15
VAN defense
#97
Success rates
50%
#15
43%
#97
Success rate
More metrics
0.33
#7
0.11
#92
EPA / play
1.32
#25
1.22
#72
Explosiveness
16%
#94
15%
#83
Havoc

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Passing

ALA defense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA defense
#55
VAN offense
#76
EPA comparison
0.10
#55
0.20
#76
Pass EPA

Rushing

ALA defense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA defense
#8
VAN offense
#79
EPA comparison
-0.17
#8
0.09
#79
Rush EPA

Drive success

ALA defense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA defense
#30
VAN offense
#102
Success rates
35%
#30
40%
#102
Success rate
More metrics
-0.06
#17
0.05
#105
EPA / play
1.37
#122
1.25
#57
Explosiveness
20%
#22
16%
#101
Havoc

Current key players

Alabama
QBKeelon Russell
1414 yds · 11 TD · 2 INT
92.54/729
RBEJ Crowell
204 yds · 3 TD · 7.8 YPC
90.38/1044
LBLuke Metz
36 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.1
Coverage
84.7
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
25
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
87.223/1796
TEMarshall Pritchett
7 rec · 148 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.8
Run blocking
74.2
Penalties
1
82.817/1017
WRNoah Rogers
3 rec · 55 yds · 0 TD
81.844/2069
LBDesmond Umeozulu
6 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.3
Coverage
62.2
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
30
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
78.798/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Josh Ford · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ford is nursing with a arm injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against Volunteers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aubrey Walker · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Volunteers on Saturday, October 17th.

Vanderbilt
QBWhit Muschamp
18 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
73.9121/729
TEMaurice Veney
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.9
Run blocking
78.6
Penalties
0
82.818/1017
SCJ Heard
40 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
86.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
121.1
Missed tackles
4
80.951/2969
SMason Lewis
20 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.8
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
72
Passer rating allowed
77.6
Missed tackles
3
79.274/2969
LBBryan Longwell
31 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
65.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
75.7163/1796
SRicardo Jones
22 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
80.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
43
Passer rating allowed
94.1
Missed tackles
5
75.1190/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Kahden Smith · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Smith has been out of the lineup due to a leg injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • J. Curtis · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Curtis is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ALA
VAN
vs
Offense
92.5
#3 of 138
QB
73.9
#86 of 138
84.4
#12 of 138
RB
69.7
#123 of 138
76.3
#29 of 138
WR
66.9
#122 of 138
82.8
#17 of 138
TE
82.8
#18 of 138
71.7
#38 of 138
OL
61.2
#126 of 138
Defense
79.7
#17 of 138
DL
71.4
#92 of 138
81.5
#14 of 138
LB
69.4
#107 of 138
72.1
#69 of 138
DB
76.1
#24 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Alabama
opponent
Vanderbilt
A+33.0
MSST#35
-2.1A
A+28.0
UK#40
+2.0A
H+18.0
AUB#42
-6.0A
H-3.0
UGA#6
-24.0A
A+5.2
TENN#21
-5.5H