AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 8:15 PM
#102Away
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
16p
#23Home
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
42p
DEL 4%96% VAN
Spread
VAN -25.9
Total
59
Moneyline
DEL+2388VAN-2388
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DEL advantageevenVAN advantage →
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
DEL +5
DEL run
VAN +28
VAN throw
VAN WR #7
VAN +30
VAN run
VAN +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · VAN
MLB · DEL
81.4
80.0
dead even
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Trace Scott III
LT · VAN
EDGE · DEL
78.0
72.8
VAN +5
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
KT Seay
X · VAN
CB1 · DEL
86.4
64.1
VAN +22
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · DEL
CB1 · VAN
68.2
79.0
VAN +11
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · DEL
MLB · VAN
66.9
76.8
VAN +10
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Miles Capers
LT · DEL
EDGE · VAN
50.6
83.8
VAN +33

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427
Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287

Projected margin

80% between 9 and 43
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVAN +25.995% interval: 2 to 49.880% interval: 8.5 to 43.3+9+43DEL wins 4%VAN wins 96%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VAN 42–14 DELVAN 39–39 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 42–35 DEL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 46–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 49–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 53–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 56–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVAN 60–18 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 63–14 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 67–11 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 35–35 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 39–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 42–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 46–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVAN 49–21 DEL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVAN 53–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 56–14 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 60–11 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 63–7 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 32–32 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 35–28 DEL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 39–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 42–21 DEL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVAN 46–18 DEL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesVAN 49–14 DEL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 53–11 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 56–7 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 60–4 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 28–28 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 32–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 35–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 39–18 DEL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVAN 42–14 DEL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesVAN 46–11 DEL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVAN 49–7 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 53–4 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 56–0 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 25–25 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 28–21 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 32–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVAN 35–14 DEL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVAN 39–11 DEL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVAN 42–7 DEL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 46–4 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 49–0 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)VAN 21–21 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 25–18 DEL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesVAN 28–14 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 32–11 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 35–7 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVAN 39–4 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 42–0 DEL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)VAN 18–18 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 21–14 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 25–11 DEL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 28–7 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 32–4 DEL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVAN 35–0 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKVAN +14VAN +28VAN +42VAN +56margin →