CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 12:45 PM ET
#44Away
NC State
1-1 · AVR 65.6
31
Final
#36Home
Vanderbilt
2-0 · AVR 67.5
35
Forecast win probability
NCSU 39.8%60.2% VAN
Projected margin
VAN by 4.5
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
NCSU 16 to VAN 23
Win probability
VAN 60.2%
FinalNCSU 31 · VAN 35model had +4.5, off by 0.5

Current team profiles

NC State
Vanderbilt

When NC State has the ball

Passing

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#44
VAN defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.31
#44
0.22
#93
Pass EPA

Rushing

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#72
VAN defense
#81
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#48
VAN defense
#97
Success rates
46%
#48
43%
#97
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#53
0.11
#92
EPA / play
1.24
#63
1.22
#72
Explosiveness
15%
#79
15%
#83
Havoc

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Passing

VAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#122
VAN offense
#76
EPA comparison
0.36
#122
0.20
#76
Pass EPA

Rushing

NCSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#68
VAN offense
#79
EPA comparison
0.04
#68
0.09
#79
Rush EPA

Drive success

NCSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#88
VAN offense
#102
Success rates
42%
#88
40%
#102
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#109
0.05
#105
EPA / play
1.30
#104
1.25
#57
Explosiveness
16%
#65
16%
#101
Havoc

Current key players

NC State
QBWill Wilson
33 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
86.134/729
RBDylan McCoy
73 yds · 1 TD · 18.2 YPC
94.11/1044
TEIan Flynt
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.9
Run blocking
81.3
Penalties
0
90.51/1017
LBZane Williams
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.7
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.728/1796
CBMichael Tate
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
77.5
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
78.485/2969
LBElijah Satchell
7 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.5
Coverage
53.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
41
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
75.4172/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Gus Ritchey · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Ritchey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Tyreek Copper · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Copper is bothered by a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Noah Moss · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moss is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday, October

  • Ian Flynt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Flynt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Vander Ploog · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ploog is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nick Konieczynski · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Konieczynski is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October

Vanderbilt
QBWhit Muschamp
18 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
73.9121/729
TEMaurice Veney
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.9
Run blocking
78.6
Penalties
0
82.818/1017
SCJ Heard
40 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
86.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
121.1
Missed tackles
4
80.951/2969
SMason Lewis
20 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.8
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
72
Passer rating allowed
77.6
Missed tackles
3
79.274/2969
LBBryan Longwell
31 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
65.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
75.7163/1796
SRicardo Jones
22 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
80.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
43
Passer rating allowed
94.1
Missed tackles
5
75.1190/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Kahden Smith · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Smith has been out of the lineup due to a leg injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • J. Curtis · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Curtis is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NCSU
VAN
vs
Offense
86.1
#32 of 138
QB
73.9
#86 of 138
92.4
#1 of 138
RB
69.7
#123 of 138
68.1
#107 of 138
WR
66.9
#122 of 138
90.5
#1 of 138
TE
82.8
#18 of 138
73.9
#21 of 138
OL
61.2
#126 of 138
Defense
71.7
#89 of 138
DL
71.4
#92 of 138
78.8
#30 of 138
LB
69.4
#107 of 138
72.7
#61 of 138
DB
76.1
#24 of 138
Common opponents