AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:45 PM
#34Away
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
25p
#23Home
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
33p
NCSU 28%72% VAN
Spread
VAN -8.6
Total
58
Moneyline
NCSU+255VAN-255
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NCSU advantageevenVAN advantage →
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90VAN pass rush #13
even
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49
VAN +42
VAN throw
VAN WR #7
VAN +41
VAN run
NCSU linebackers #64
VAN +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
King Mack
X · VAN
CB1 · NCSU
86.4
75.8
VAN +11
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · NCSU
CB1 · VAN
73.0
79.0
VAN +6
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · VAN
MLB · NCSU
81.4
70.6
VAN +11
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · NCSU
MLB · VAN
72.5
76.8
VAN +4
off the edge· hunting Bailey
Rylan Vann
vs
Miles Capers
LT · NCSU
EDGE · VAN
42.5
83.8
VAN +41
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Adrian Farrow
LT · VAN
EDGE · NCSU
78.0
46.6
VAN +31

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVAN +8.695% interval: -15.3 to 32.580% interval: -8.8 to 26-9+26NCSU wins 28%VAN wins 72%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VAN 32–25 NCSUVAN 28–49 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 32–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 35–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 39–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVAN 42–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 46–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 49–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 53–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 56–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 25–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 28–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 32–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 35–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVAN 39–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVAN 42–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 46–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVAN 49–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesVAN 53–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 21–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 25–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 28–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 32–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 35–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVAN 39–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVAN 42–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVAN 46–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 49–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 18–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 21–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 25–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 28–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 32–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVAN 35–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVAN 39–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVAN 42–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 46–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 14–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 18–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 21–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 25–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 28–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVAN 32–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVAN 35–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 39–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 42–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 11–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 14–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 18–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 21–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 25–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 28–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 32–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 35–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 39–4 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 7–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 11–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 14–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 18–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVAN 21–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVAN 25–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 28–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 32–4 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVAN 35–0 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalNCSU +21NCSU +7VAN +7VAN +21VAN +35margin →