AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Tennessee-Vanderbilt
#17Away
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
32p
#23Home
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
31p
TENN 54%46% VAN
Spread
TENN -1.3
Total
63
Moneyline
TENN-115VAN+115
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TENN advantageevenVAN advantage →
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
even
TENN run
even
VAN throw
VAN WR #7
TENN +6
VAN run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Miles Capers
LT · TENN
EDGE · VAN
81.0
83.8
dead even
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
Ty Redmond
X · VAN
CB1 · TENN
86.4
78.0
VAN +8
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · TENN
MLB · VAN
85.8
76.8
TENN +9
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Jordan Norman
LT · VAN
EDGE · TENN
78.0
82.3
TENN +4
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · TENN
CB1 · VAN
79.8
79.0
dead even
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · VAN
MLB · TENN
81.4
77.3
VAN +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tennessee
opponent
Vanderbilt
home+21.3
Kentucky#67
+12.5away
home+10.7
Auburn#31
+1.9away
home+0.5
Alabama#12
-3.3home
away+8.8
Arkansas#40
+10.0home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTENN +1.395% interval: -25.9 to 23.380% interval: -19.2 to 16.6-19+17TENN wins 54%VAN wins 46%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VAN 32–32 TENNVAN 28–56 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 32–53 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 35–49 TENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 39–46 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVAN 42–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 46–39 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 49–35 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 53–32 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 56–28 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVAN 25–53 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 28–49 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 32–46 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 35–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 39–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 42–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 46–32 TENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 49–28 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 53–25 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 21–49 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 25–46 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 28–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 32–39 TENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVAN 35–35 TENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVAN 39–32 TENN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVAN 42–28 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 46–25 TENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 49–21 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 18–46 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 21–42 TENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVAN 25–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVAN 28–35 TENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVAN 32–32 TENN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesVAN 35–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVAN 39–25 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 42–21 TENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 46–18 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 14–42 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVAN 18–39 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 21–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 25–32 TENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVAN 28–28 TENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVAN 32–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVAN 35–21 TENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 39–18 TENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVAN 42–14 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 11–39 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVAN 14–35 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVAN 18–32 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVAN 21–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVAN 25–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVAN 28–21 TENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVAN 32–18 TENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVAN 35–14 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 39–11 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 7–35 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVAN 11–32 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVAN 14–28 TENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVAN 18–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVAN 21–21 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVAN 25–18 TENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVAN 28–14 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVAN 32–11 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVAN 35–7 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalTENN +28TENN +14PKVAN +14VAN +28margin →