AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#34Away
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
26p
#30Home
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
33p
NCSU 32%68% FSU
Spread
FSU -6.8
Total
59
Moneyline
NCSU+213FSU-213
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NCSU advantageevenFSU advantage →
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90
NCSU +10
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49
FSU +27
FSU throw
FSU WR #3FSU protection #74
FSU +34
FSU run
NCSU linebackers #64
FSU +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FSU throws
Duce Robinson
vs
King Mack
X · FSU
CB1 · NCSU
87.7
75.8
FSU +12
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Blake Nichelson
RB · NCSU
MLB · FSU
72.5
79.5
FSU +7
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
Nehemiah Chandler
X · NCSU
CB1 · FSU
73.0
73.6
dead even
when FSU runs
Quintrevion Wisner
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · FSU
MLB · NCSU
68.8
70.6
dead even
over the middle
Preston Douglas
vs
Donny Hiebert
TE · NCSU
FS · FSU
59.2
61.2
dead even
off the edge· hunting Sperry
Xavier Chaplin
vs
Adrian Farrow
LT · FSU
EDGE · NCSU
68.0
46.6
FSU +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

Florida State
WRDuce Robinson
87.74/777
WRMicahi Danzy
86.98/777
LBBlake Nichelson
79.560/878
LBChris Jones
73.9113/878
DBNehemiah Chandler
73.6168/1427
DBAshlynd Barker
71.8195/1427

also out — Daniel Lyons, Malachi Marshall (QB), DB Transfer, Karson Hobbs, Devin Carter (WR), FSU freshman wide receiver (WR), Mike Norvell (WR), Dexter Carter Speaks +1 more

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
NC State
opponent
Florida State
away-26.0
Virginia#49
+10.7home
home+0.8
Louisville#28
+0.1away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFSU +6.895% interval: -17.1 to 30.780% interval: -10.6 to 24.2-11+24NCSU wins 32%FSU wins 68%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FSU 32–25 NCSUFSU 28–49 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 32–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFSU 35–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFSU 39–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFSU 42–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFSU 46–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFSU 49–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 53–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 56–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 25–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 28–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFSU 32–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 35–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFSU 39–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFSU 42–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFSU 46–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 49–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFSU 53–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 21–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 25–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 28–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFSU 32–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFSU 35–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFSU 39–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFSU 42–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFSU 46–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 49–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 18–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 21–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 25–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFSU 28–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFSU 32–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFSU 35–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFSU 39–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFSU 42–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 46–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 14–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 18–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFSU 21–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFSU 25–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFSU 28–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFSU 32–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFSU 35–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 39–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFSU 42–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 11–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 14–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFSU 18–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFSU 21–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFSU 25–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFSU 28–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFSU 32–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFSU 35–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFSU 39–4 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 7–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 11–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 14–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFSU 18–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFSU 21–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFSU 25–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFSU 28–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 32–4 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 35–0 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalNCSU +21NCSU +7FSU +7FSU +21FSU +35margin →