CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
#63Away
NC State
3-3 · AVR 61.1
24p
#49Home
Florida State
3-3 · AVR 63.3
38p
Forecast win probability
NCSU 19.4%80.6% FSU
Projected margin
FSU by 13.6
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
NCSU 5 to FSU 32
Win probability
FSU 80.6%

Current team profiles

NC State
Florida State

When NC State has the ball

Passing

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#44
FSU defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.31
#44
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#72
FSU defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#48
FSU defense
#88
Success rates
46%
#48
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#53
0.16
#110
EPA / play
1.24
#63
1.31
#106
Explosiveness
15%
#79
16%
#68
Havoc

When Florida State has the ball

Passing

FSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#122
FSU offense
#72
EPA comparison
0.36
#122
0.22
#72
Pass EPA

Rushing

FSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#68
FSU offense
#8
EPA comparison
0.04
#68
0.28
#8
Rush EPA

Drive success

FSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#88
FSU offense
#57
Success rates
42%
#88
45%
#57
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#109
0.22
#40
EPA / play
1.30
#104
1.38
#11
Explosiveness
16%
#65
15%
#74
Havoc

Current key players

NC State
QBWill Wilson
33 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
86.134/729
RBDylan McCoy
73 yds · 1 TD · 18.2 YPC
94.11/1044
TEIan Flynt
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.9
Run blocking
81.3
Penalties
0
90.51/1017
LBZane Williams
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.7
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.728/1796
CBMichael Tate
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
77.5
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
78.485/2969
LBElijah Satchell
7 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.5
Coverage
53.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
41
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
75.4172/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Gus Ritchey · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Ritchey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Tyreek Copper · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Copper is bothered by a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Noah Moss · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moss is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday, October

  • Ian Flynt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Flynt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Vander Ploog · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ploog is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nick Konieczynski · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Konieczynski is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October

Florida State
QBAshton Daniels
1111 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
77.794/729
RBOusmane Kromah
477 yds · 5 TD · 5.9 YPC
87.322/1044
LBBlake Nichelson
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.1
Coverage
64.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.3175/1796
DBAntonio Cromartie Jr.
4 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
74.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
74.0234/2969
LBKaron Maycock
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.4
Coverage
64.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
10
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
71.4312/1796
WRJayvan Boggs
13 rec · 257 yds · 1 TD
71.1225/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Samuel Singleton Jr. · RBout · 2026-09-21

    Singleton is managing a lower body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Tae'Shaun Gelsey · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Gelsey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Devin Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carter is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Gavin Markey · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Markey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NCSU
FSU
vs
Offense
86.1
#32 of 138
QB
77.7
#71 of 138
92.4
#1 of 138
RB
82.2
#22 of 138
68.1
#107 of 138
WR
68.3
#102 of 138
90.5
#1 of 138
TE
61.0
#112 of 138
73.9
#21 of 138
OL
66.4
#85 of 138
Defense
71.7
#89 of 138
DL
67.7
#127 of 138
78.8
#30 of 138
LB
72.0
#87 of 138
72.7
#61 of 138
DB
68.8
#114 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

NC State
opponent
Florida State
A-26.0
UVA#50
+31.0H
H+3.0
LOU#27
-24.0A