AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#71Away
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
23p
#34Home
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
35p
SYR 21%79% NCSU
Spread
NCSU -12.0
Total
57
Moneyline
SYR+381NCSU-381
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SYR advantageevenNCSU advantage →
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
SYR +26
SYR run
NCSU linebackers #64
NCSU +20
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90
NCSU +26
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · NCSU
MLB · SYR
72.5
80.0
SYR +7
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
Nazir Ward
X · NCSU
CB1 · SYR
73.0
68.7
NCSU +4
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
King Mack
X · SYR
CB1 · NCSU
54.3
75.8
NCSU +21
off the edge· hunting Bailey
Rylan Vann
vs
Tunmise Adeleye
LT · NCSU
EDGE · SYR
42.5
80.3
SYR +38
over the middle
Preston Douglas
vs
Demetres Samuel Jr.
TE · NCSU
FS · SYR
59.2
55.5
NCSU +4
when SYR runs
Malachi Coleman
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · SYR
MLB · NCSU
42.7
70.6
NCSU +28

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878
NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Syracuse
opponent
NC State
away-8.1
Virginia#49
-26.0away
home+2.0
California#68
+11.5home
home-8.7
Louisville#28
+0.8home
away-6.3
North Carolina#61
+3.2away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNCSU +12.095% interval: -11.9 to 35.980% interval: -5.4 to 29.4-5+29SYR wins 21%NCSU wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NCSU 35–21 SYRNCSU 32–46 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 35–42 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNCSU 39–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNCSU 42–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 46–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 49–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 53–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 56–21 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 60–18 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 28–42 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 32–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 35–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 39–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 42–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 46–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNCSU 49–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNCSU 53–18 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNCSU 56–14 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 25–39 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 28–35 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 32–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 35–28 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNCSU 39–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 42–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 46–18 SYR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNCSU 49–14 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 53–11 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 21–35 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 25–32 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 28–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNCSU 32–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 35–21 SYR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNCSU 39–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 42–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 46–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNCSU 49–7 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 18–32 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 21–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 25–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 28–21 SYR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNCSU 32–18 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNCSU 35–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNCSU 39–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 42–7 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 46–4 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 14–28 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 18–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 21–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 25–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNCSU 28–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 32–11 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 35–7 SYR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 39–4 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNCSU 42–0 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 11–25 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 14–21 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 18–18 SYR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 21–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 25–11 SYR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 28–7 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 32–4 SYR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 35–0 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSYR +14PKNCSU +14NCSU +28NCSU +42margin →