AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Carolina Rivalry
#34Away
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
29p
#61Home
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
25p
NCSU 58%42% UNC
Spread
NCSU -3.2
Total
54
Moneyline
NCSU-140UNC+140
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NCSU advantageevenUNC advantage →
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90
NCSU +12
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49
NCSU +8
UNC throw
NCSU +4
UNC run
NCSU linebackers #64
NCSU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
Peyton Waters
X · NCSU
CB1 · UNC
73.0
69.9
NCSU +3
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Daniel Anderson
RB · NCSU
MLB · UNC
72.5
61.1
NCSU +11
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
King Mack
X · UNC
CB1 · NCSU
56.0
75.8
NCSU +20
off the edge· hunting Bailey
Rylan Vann
vs
Melkart Abou Jaoude
LT · NCSU
EDGE · UNC
42.5
87.3
UNC +45
when UNC runs
Demon June
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · UNC
MLB · NCSU
56.8
70.6
NCSU +14
over the middle
Preston Douglas
vs
Kaleb Cost
TE · NCSU
FS · UNC
59.2
67.3
UNC +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
NC State
opponent
North Carolina
away-26.0
Virginia#49
-4.3away
home+4.6
Duke#39
-6.2away
home+0.8
Louisville#28
-4.9home
home+12.0
Syracuse#71
+6.3home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNCSU +3.295% interval: -27.8 to 21.480% interval: -21.1 to 14.7-21+15NCSU wins 58%UNC wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNC 28–28 NCSUUNC 25–53 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 28–49 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 32–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNC 35–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 39–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 42–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNC 46–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 49–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 53–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUNC 21–49 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 25–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 28–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 32–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNC 35–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 39–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 42–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 46–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 49–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 18–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 21–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNC 25–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNC 28–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNC 32–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNC 35–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNC 39–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNC 42–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNC 46–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 14–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNC 18–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNC 21–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 25–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNC 28–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNC 32–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 35–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 39–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 42–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 11–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNC 14–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNC 18–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNC 21–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNC 25–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNC 28–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 32–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 35–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNC 39–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 7–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 11–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNC 14–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 18–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 21–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 25–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNC 28–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNC 32–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 35–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 4–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 7–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 11–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 14–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNC 18–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNC 21–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 25–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 28–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 32–4 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalNCSU +28NCSU +14PKUNC +14UNC +28margin →