AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 3:30 PM
#34Away
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
8
#49Home
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
34
NCSU 21%79% UVA
Spread
UVA -11.7
Total
54
Moneyline
NCSU+385UVA-385
Against the market
UVA +7.7line UVA -4.0
FinalNCSU 8 · UVA 34model had +11.7, off by 14.3

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NCSU advantageevenUVA advantage →
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90
UVA +15
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49
UVA +35
UVA throw
UVA WR #93
UVA +35
UVA run
NCSU linebackers #64
UVA +42

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
Jam Jackson
X · NCSU
CB1 · UVA
73.0
86.4
UVA +13
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · NCSU
MLB · UVA
72.5
83.5
UVA +11
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · UVA
MLB · NCSU
70.6
70.6
dead even
over the middle
Preston Douglas
vs
Kevon Gray
TE · NCSU
FS · UVA
59.2
70.7
UVA +11
when UVA throws
Tyson Davis
vs
King Mack
X · UVA
CB1 · NCSU
53.4
75.8
NCSU +22
off the edge· hunting Bailey
Rylan Vann
vs
Fisher Camac
LT · NCSU
EDGE · UVA
42.5
84.8
UVA +42

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
NC State
opponent
Virginia
home+6.5
Wake Forest#46
-2.4away
home+4.6
Duke#39
+0.6home
home+11.5
California#68
+7.6home
home+12.0
Syracuse#71
+8.1home
away-6.8
Florida State#30
-10.7away
away+3.2
North Carolina#61
+4.3home

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUVA +11.7MKTActual margin: UVA +26ACTUAL95% interval: -18 to 4280% interval: -7 to 32-7+32NCSU wins 21%UVA wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UVA 35–21 NCSUUVA 32–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 35–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 39–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 42–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 46–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 49–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUVA 53–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 56–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 60–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUVA 28–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 32–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 35–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 39–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 42–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUVA 46–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 49–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 53–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 56–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 25–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 28–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 32–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 35–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUVA 39–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 42–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 46–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 49–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 53–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 21–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 25–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 28–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 32–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUVA 35–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUVA 39–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 42–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 46–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 49–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 18–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 21–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 25–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 28–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUVA 32–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUVA 35–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUVA 39–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 42–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 46–4 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 14–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 18–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 21–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 25–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 28–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUVA 32–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 35–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUVA 39–4 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 42–0 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 11–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 14–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 18–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 21–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 25–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 28–7 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 32–4 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 35–0 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalActual: UVA 34–8 NCSUACTUALNCSU +14PKUVA +14UVA +28UVA +42margin →