CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 3:30 PM ET
#44Away
NC State
0-0 · AVR 60.9
8
Final
#37Home
Virginia
0-0 · AVR 62.5
34
Forecast win probability
NCSU 41.9%58.1% UVA
Projected margin
UVA by 3.2
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
NCSU 17 to UVA 24
Win probability
UVA 58.1%
FinalNCSU 8 · UVA 34model had +3.2, off by 22.8

Current team profiles

NC State
Virginia

When NC State has the ball

Passing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#44
UVA defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.31
#44
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#72
UVA defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
0.07
#84
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#48
UVA defense
#41
Success rates
46%
#48
37%
#41
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#53
-0.01
#38
EPA / play
1.24
#63
1.11
#25
Explosiveness
15%
#79
17%
#42
Havoc

When Virginia has the ball

Passing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#122
UVA offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.36
#122
0.29
#45
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#68
UVA offense
#63
EPA comparison
0.04
#68
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#88
UVA offense
#62
Success rates
42%
#88
44%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#109
0.18
#55
EPA / play
1.30
#104
1.17
#98
Explosiveness
16%
#65
13%
#42
Havoc

Current key players

NC State
QBWill Wilson
33 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
86.134/729
RBDylan McCoy
73 yds · 1 TD · 18.2 YPC
94.11/1044
TEIan Flynt
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.9
Run blocking
81.3
Penalties
0
90.51/1017
LBZane Williams
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.7
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.728/1796
CBMichael Tate
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
77.5
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
78.485/2969
LBElijah Satchell
7 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.5
Coverage
53.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
41
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
75.4172/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Gus Ritchey · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Ritchey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Tyreek Copper · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Copper is bothered by a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Noah Moss · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moss is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday, October

  • Ian Flynt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Flynt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Vander Ploog · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ploog is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nick Konieczynski · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Konieczynski is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October

Virginia
QBEli Holstein
180 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
85.440/729
LBJustin Rowe
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.8
Coverage
94.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
94.13/1796
SKeke Adams
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
91.7
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
91.16/2969
TELukas Ungar
2 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.0
Run blocking
58.8
Penalties
0
86.010/1017
CBOmillio Agard
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.3
Coverage
79.2
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.4111/2969
DBPatrick Campbell
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.8241/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Jason Hammond · DLout · 2026-09-15

    Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Rico Flores Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Flores left previous game due to a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Peyton Lewis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Triston Ward · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ward is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Newton-Short · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Newton-Short is managing a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Stevens · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tim Hamann · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NCSU
UVA
vs
Offense
86.1
#32 of 138
QB
85.4
#37 of 138
92.4
#1 of 138
RB
69.8
#122 of 138
68.1
#107 of 138
WR
69.4
#89 of 138
90.5
#1 of 138
TE
86.0
#10 of 138
73.9
#21 of 138
OL
81.1
#2 of 138
Defense
71.7
#89 of 138
DL
77.6
#29 of 138
78.8
#30 of 138
LB
78.8
#31 of 138
72.7
#61 of 138
DB
76.8
#17 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

NC State
opponent
Virginia
H-24.0
WAKE#26
-6.2A
A-13.6
FSU#49
-31.0A
A+0.3
UNC#60
+8.6H
H+9.4
SYR#68
+3.0H
H+10.2
CAL#90
+13.2H
H-5.2
DUKE#34
-2.2H