CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 AM ET
#90Away
California
3-3 · AVR 56.1
24p
#63Home
NC State
3-3 · AVR 61.1
34p
Forecast win probability
CAL 25.9%74.1% NCSU
Projected margin
NCSU by 10.2
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
CAL 8 to NCSU 29
Win probability
NCSU 74.1%

Current team profiles

California
NC State

When California has the ball

Passing

CAL offense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#92
NCSU defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.36
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

NCSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#123
NCSU defense
#68
EPA comparison
-0.07
#123
0.04
#68
Rush EPA

Drive success

NCSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#113
NCSU defense
#88
Success rates
39%
#113
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#119
0.16
#109
EPA / play
1.28
#42
1.30
#104
Explosiveness
17%
#114
16%
#65
Havoc

When NC State has the ball

Passing

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#26
NCSU offense
#44
EPA comparison
0.01
#26
0.31
#44
Pass EPA

Rushing

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#122
NCSU offense
#72
EPA comparison
0.19
#122
0.10
#72
Rush EPA

Drive success

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#36
NCSU offense
#48
Success rates
37%
#36
46%
#48
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#70
0.19
#53
EPA / play
1.40
#128
1.24
#63
Explosiveness
14%
#97
15%
#79
Havoc

Current key players

California
QBDominic Ingrassia
— yds · — TD · — INT
76.3103/729
DBKingston Lopa
27 tkl · 1 PD · 5 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.6
Coverage
90.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
42.1
Missed tackles
6
85.523/2969
RBAdam Mohammed
336 yds · 3 TD · 4.6 YPC
78.5100/1044
DBCam Sidney
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
1
76.6142/2969
DBIsaiah Crosby
24 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
22.2
Missed tackles
3
76.3150/2969
LBJoshua Pierce
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.6301/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Adam Mohammed · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mohammed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is un determined if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sagapolutele is dealing with a head injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Vargas · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Vargas is dealing with a leg injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cole Boscia · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Boscia is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Rico Walker · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trevor Rogers · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rogers is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

NC State
QBWill Wilson
33 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
86.134/729
RBDylan McCoy
73 yds · 1 TD · 18.2 YPC
94.11/1044
TEIan Flynt
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.9
Run blocking
81.3
Penalties
0
90.51/1017
LBZane Williams
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.7
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.728/1796
CBMichael Tate
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
77.5
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
78.485/2969
LBElijah Satchell
7 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.5
Coverage
53.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
41
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
75.4172/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Gus Ritchey · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Ritchey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Tyreek Copper · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Copper is bothered by a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Noah Moss · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moss is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday, October

  • Ian Flynt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Flynt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Vander Ploog · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ploog is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nick Konieczynski · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Konieczynski is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

CAL
NCSU
vs
Offense
76.3
#77 of 138
QB
86.1
#32 of 138
73.2
#93 of 138
RB
92.4
#1 of 138
66.0
#128 of 138
WR
68.1
#107 of 138
57.9
#132 of 138
TE
90.5
#1 of 138
67.0
#78 of 138
OL
73.9
#21 of 138
Defense
70.3
#102 of 138
DL
71.7
#89 of 138
70.6
#99 of 138
LB
78.8
#30 of 138
77.1
#15 of 138
DB
72.7
#61 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

California
opponent
NC State
A-13.2
UVA#50
-26.0A
H-11.4
WAKE#26
-24.0H
A+3.0
SYR#68
+9.4H
H+4.0
STAN#106
+6.2A