AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#68Away
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
21p
#34Home
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
33p
CAL 22%78% NCSU
Spread
NCSU -11.5
Total
54
Moneyline
CAL+362NCSU-362
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CAL advantageevenNCSU advantage →
CAL throw
CAL protection #105
CAL +42
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
CAL +6
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90CAL coverage #52
NCSU +33
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49CAL linebackers #81
NCSU +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
King Mack
X · CAL
CB1 · NCSU
78.7
75.8
dead even
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
Cam Sidney
X · NCSU
CB1 · CAL
73.0
78.5
CAL +5
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Tristan Jernigan
RB · NCSU
MLB · CAL
72.5
69.7
dead even
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · CAL
MLB · NCSU
69.4
70.6
dead even
over the middle
Preston Douglas
vs
Khamani Hudson
TE · NCSU
FS · CAL
59.2
61.9
dead even
over the middle
Dorian Thomas
vs
Jackson Vick
TE · CAL
FS · NCSU
63.0
48.4
CAL +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878
NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
California
opponent
NC State
away-7.6
Virginia#49
-26.0away
away-2.0
Syracuse#71
+12.0home
home-2.5
Wake Forest#46
+6.5home
home+9.2
Stanford#96
+13.2away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNCSU +11.595% interval: -12.4 to 35.480% interval: -5.9 to 28.9-6+29CAL wins 22%NCSU wins 78%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NCSU 35–21 CALNCSU 32–46 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 35–42 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 39–39 CAL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 42–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 46–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 49–28 CAL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNCSU 53–25 CAL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNCSU 56–21 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 60–18 CAL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNCSU 28–42 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 32–39 CAL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 35–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 39–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 42–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNCSU 46–25 CAL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 49–21 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 53–18 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 56–14 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 25–39 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 28–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 32–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 35–28 CAL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNCSU 39–25 CAL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNCSU 42–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 46–18 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 49–14 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 53–11 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 21–35 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 25–32 CAL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 28–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 32–25 CAL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 35–21 CAL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNCSU 39–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 42–14 CAL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNCSU 46–11 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 49–7 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 18–32 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 21–28 CAL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 25–25 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNCSU 28–21 CAL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 32–18 CAL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNCSU 35–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 39–11 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 42–7 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 46–4 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 14–28 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 18–25 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 21–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 25–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 28–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNCSU 32–11 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNCSU 35–7 CAL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNCSU 39–4 CAL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNCSU 42–0 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 11–25 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 14–21 CAL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNCSU 18–18 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 21–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 25–11 CAL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 28–7 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 32–4 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 35–0 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCAL +14PKNCSU +14NCSU +28NCSU +42margin →