AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#28Away
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
33p
#71Home
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
24p
LOU 73%27% SYR
Spread
LOU -8.7
Total
57
Moneyline
LOU-267SYR+267
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LOU advantageevenSYR advantage →
LOU throw
LOU WR #19
LOU +19
LOU run
LOU +21
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
LOU +33
SYR run
LOU +63

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
Nazir Ward
X · LOU
CB1 · SYR
92.9
68.7
LOU +24
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · LOU
MLB · SYR
73.6
80.0
SYR +6
off the edge· hunting Kienholz
Evan Wibberley
vs
Tunmise Adeleye
LT · LOU
EDGE · SYR
68.8
80.3
SYR +11
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
Antonio Watts
X · SYR
CB1 · LOU
54.3
91.0
LOU +37
off the edge· hunting Odom
Joe Cruz
vs
Clev Lubin
LT · SYR
EDGE · LOU
34.8
93.1
LOU +58
over the middle
Brody Foley
vs
Demetres Samuel Jr.
TE · LOU
FS · SYR
61.4
55.5
LOU +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisville
opponent
Syracuse
home+4.1
Pittsburgh#33
-12.1away
home-3.5
SMU#18
-14.7home
away-0.8
NC State#34
-12.0away
away+4.9
North Carolina#61
-6.3away

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLOU +8.795% interval: -32.6 to 15.280% interval: -26.1 to 8.7-26+9LOU wins 73%SYR wins 27%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LOU 32–25 SYRSYR 21–56 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 25–53 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 28–49 LOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSYR 32–46 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSYR 35–42 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSYR 39–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 42–35 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSYR 46–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 49–28 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSYR 18–53 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 21–49 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSYR 25–46 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 28–42 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSYR 32–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSYR 35–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSYR 39–32 LOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSYR 42–28 LOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 46–25 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 14–49 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 18–46 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSYR 21–42 LOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSYR 25–39 LOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSYR 28–35 LOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSYR 32–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSYR 35–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSYR 39–25 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSYR 42–21 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 11–46 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 14–42 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSYR 18–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSYR 21–35 LOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSYR 25–32 LOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSYR 28–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSYR 32–25 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 35–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSYR 39–18 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 7–42 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 11–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSYR 14–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSYR 18–32 LOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSYR 21–28 LOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSYR 25–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSYR 28–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSYR 32–18 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 35–14 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 4–39 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSYR 7–35 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSYR 11–32 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 14–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSYR 18–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSYR 21–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSYR 25–18 LOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSYR 28–14 LOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 32–11 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSYR 0–35 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 4–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 7–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSYR 11–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 14–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSYR 18–18 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSYR 21–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSYR 25–11 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 28–7 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalLOU +35LOU +21LOU +7SYR +7SYR +21margin →